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Coassurance des dépôts et panique bancaire : une étude expérimentale

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  • Philippe Madiès

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Ce papier se propose d'étudier expérimentalement la capacité d'une assurance des dépôts, proposant une couverture partielle, à prévenir ou arrêter une panique bancaire auto-réalisatrice. On montre tout d'abord que la prévention des paniques nécessite, pour être efficace, une couverture totale des déposants. En effet, un taux de couverture de 75 % des déposants ne permet ni de prévenir l'apparition d'une ruée ni de diminuer le nombre de parties où elle se produit dans le cas où les déposants ne sont pas du tout couverts. En revanche, une baisse du taux de couverture de 75% à 25% accroît de manière significative la propension des individus à paniquer, surtout lorsque la précédente session s'est terminée sur une situation de panique. Ensuite, ce travail expérimental témoigne de l'importance de la cohérence des signaux que l'on envoie aux déposants pour les aider à se coordonner sur la situation de non-panique. En effet, une suspension longue de la disponibilité des dépôts provoque un effet dévastateur lorsqu'elle s'accompagne d'une baisse du taux de couverture des déposants. Enfin, ce papier suggère que le problème de l'aléa de moralité ne doit pas être résolu au moyen d'une baisse de la couverture des déposants, surtout dans des secteurs bancaires fragiles où les déposants sont sujets à des comportements de défiance.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Madiès, 2001. "Coassurance des dépôts et panique bancaire : une étude expérimentale," Post-Print halshs-00151511, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00151511
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00151511
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Armaos, J., 1992. "Bank Runs and Partial Suspension of Convertibility," Papers 92-34, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    2. Temzelides, Theodosios, 1997. "Evolution, coordination, and banking panics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 163-183, September.
    3. Engineer, Merwan, 1989. "Bank runs and the suspension of deposit convertibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 443-454, November.
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