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Abstract

Ce papier a pour objectif de vérifier empiriquement une idée qui tend de plus largement à s'imposer : plutôt que d'opposer les deux explications des crises financières des crises financières récentes basées soit sur des facteurs endogènes aux pays affectés, soit sur des facteurs exogènes à ces pays, notre intelligence de ces périodes critiques gagne, au contraire, à considérer ces deux catégories de facteurs comme étant complémentaires et non alternatives. Les développements théoriques récents ont donné à cette intuition une certaine consistance. Notre contribution vise à l'étayer empiriquement.Après avoir rappelé les termes de l'opposition entre les deux points de vue concurrents, nous montrerons l'intérêt d'une approche en terme d'imbrication de ces deux types de facteurs, en nous basant sur des estimations d'un modèle de Panel à erreurs composées ainsi que sur des statistiques de test des modèles emboîtés (Test de Fisher). Sur la base des résultats que nous avons obtenus à l'aide de données portant sur 14 pays en développement et 3 épisodes de récentes crises (mexicaine 1994, asiatique 1997 et russe 1998), nous établissons la supériorité d'une analyse qui imbrique les causes endogènes et les causes exogènes dans l'explication des récentes crises financières des pays émergents. A ce jour, des éléments de preuve de cette supériorité ont pu être apportés dans le contexte particulier de telle ou telle crise. Notre contribution fournit cette preuve pour l'ensemble des crises financières majeures de ces 10 dernières années et les principaux pays affectés par ces crises.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00137700.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Publication status: Published, L'Actualité économique., 2006, 82, 3, 341-376
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00137700

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00137700/en/
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Keywords: crise financière ; pays émergent;

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