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Quasi-option value and climate policy choices

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Author Info
Minh Ha-Duong () (CIRED - Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales - Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts)

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Abstract

In the climate change issue, the environmental irreversibility (risk of an acceleration of mitigation policies if the worse happen) has to be balanced with the investment irreversibility (risk of over-cautious policies). To explore this balance, we define an option value for a precautionary climate policy. Using the simplest decision-making model, we expose how option value relates to the expected value of future information. Using quantitative data from an integrated as sessment model, we find that most of the times the environmental irreversibility dominates the investment irreversibility. For all cases explored here, the order of magnitude of the option value was significant, about 50% of the opportunity cost.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00002457_v1.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Publication status: Published, Energy Economics, 1998, 20, 599-620
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00002457_v1

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Related research
Keywords: Option value; Climate change; Irreversibility;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fisher, Anthony C. & Hanemann, W. Michael, 1987. "Quasi-option value: Some misconceptions dispelled," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 183-190, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Peck, Stephen C. & Teisberg, Thomas J., 1993. "Global warming uncertainties and the value of information: an analysis using CETA," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 71-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fisher, Anthony C & Hanemann, W Michael, 1990. "Option Value: Theory and Measurement," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press for the Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 17(2), pages 167-80.
  4. Minh Ha-Duong & Michael Grubb & Jean-Charles Hourcade, 1997. "Influence of socioeconomic inertia and uncertainty on optimal CO2-emission abatement," Post-Print halshs-00002452_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  5. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ulph, Alistair & Ulph, David, 1997. "Global Warming, Irreversibility and Learning," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 636-50, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Laurent Gilotte & Michel de Lara, 2005. "Precautionary Effect and Variations of the Value of Information," Working Papers 2005.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  2. LANGE Andreas & TREICH Nicolas, 2007. "Uncertainty, Learning and Ambiguity in Economic Models on Climate Policy: Some Classical Results and New Directions," Working Papers 07.16.237, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  3. Olivier Godard, 2007. "Climat et générations futures - Un examen critique du débat académique suscité par le Rapport Stern," Working Papers hal-00243059_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sonja Peterson, 2004. "The Contribution of Economics to the Analysis of Climate Change and Uncertainty: A Survey of Approaches and Findings," Kiel Working Papers 1212, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Minh Ha-Duong & Benoit Morel, 2003. "The real option with an absorbing barrier," Post-Print halshs-00003976_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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