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Influence of socioeconomic inertia and uncertainty on optimal CO2-emission abatement

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Author Info
Minh Ha-Duong () (CIRED - Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales - Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts)
Michael Grubb (EEP - Energy and Environmental Programme - Royal Institute of International Affairs)
Jean-Charles Hourcade () (CIRED - Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales - Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts)

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Abstract

Following the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change [1], countries will negotiate in Kyoto this December an agreement to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Here we examine optimal CO2 policies, given long-term constraints on atmospheric concentrations. Our analysis highlights the interplay of uncertainty and socioeconomic inertia. We find that the ‘integrated assessment' models so far applied under-represent inertia, and we show that higher adjustment costs make it optimal to spread the effort across generations and increase the costs of deferring abatement. Balancing the costs of early action against the potentially higher costs of a more rapid forced subsequent transition, we show that early attention to the carbon content of new and replacement investments reduces the exposure of both the environmental and the economic systems to the risks of costly and unpleasant surprises. If there is a significant probability of having to stay below a doubling of atmospheric CO2-equivalent, deferring abatement may prove costly.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00002452_v1.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Publication status: Published, Nature, 1997, 390, 270-273
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00002452_v1

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  1. Minh Ha-Duong & Nicolas Treich, 2004. "Risk aversion, intergenerational equity and climate change," Post-Print halshs-00000680_v2, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Olivier Godard, 2005. "The precautionary principle. Between social norms and economic constructs," Working Papers hal-00243008_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  3. Klaus Keller & Kelvin Tan & Francois M.M. Morel & David F. Bradford, 2000. "Preserving the Ocean Circulation: Implications for Climate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Richard S.J. Tol, 2002. "Technology Protocols For Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-14, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2002. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christian Azar, 1998. "Are Optimal CO2 Emissions Really Optimal?," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(3), pages 301-315, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Benefits Of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-64, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2005. [Downloadable!]
  7. Reyer Gerlagh, Snorre Kverndokk and Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2007. "Optimal Timing of Environmental Policy. Interaction between Environmental Taxes and Innovation Externalities," Discussion Papers 493, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Michael Toman, 1998. "Research Frontiers in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(3), pages 603-621, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Minh Ha-Duong & Nicolas Treich, 1999. "Recursive Intergenerational Utility in Global Climate Risk Modeling," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-40, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  10. Roger Guesnerie, 2004. "Calcul économique et développement durable," DELTA Working Papers 2004-02, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  11. Toman, Michael & Morgenstern, Richard & Anderson, John, 1998. "The Economics of "When" Flexibility in the Design of Greenhouse Gas Abatement Policies," Discussion Papers dp-99-38-rev, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
  12. Minh Ha-Duong, 1998. "Quasi-option value and climate policy choices," Post-Print halshs-00002457_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Olivier Godard, 2007. "Climat et générations futures - Un examen critique du débat académique suscité par le Rapport Stern," Working Papers hal-00243059_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  14. Fischer, Carolyn & Toman, Michael & Kerr, Suzi, 1998. "Using Emissions Trading to Regulate U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Overview of Policy Design and Implementation Issues," Discussion Papers dp-98-40, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
  15. Ghersi, Frederic & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2001. "The Economics of a Lost Deal," Discussion Papers dp-01-48-, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
  16. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Polluter Pays Principle And Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-98, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Richard Tol, 1999. "Spatial and Temporal Efficiency in Climate Policy: Applications of FUND," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 14(1), pages 33-49, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Multi-Gas Emission Reduction For Climate Change Policy: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-46, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Reyer Gerlagh & Snorre Kverndokk & Knut Rosendahl, 2009. "Optimal Timing of Climate Change Policy: Interaction Between Carbon Taxes and Innovation Externalities," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 369-390, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Carlo Carraro & Valentina Bosetti & Alessandra Sgobbi & Massimo Tavoni, 2008. "Delayed Action and Uncertain Targets. How Much Will Climate Policy Cost?," Working Papers 2008_27, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Malte Schwoon & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Optimal CO2-abatement with socio-economic inertia and induced technological change," Working Papers FNU-37, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004. [Downloadable!]
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