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An abrupt stochastic damage function to analyse climate policy benefits

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Author Info

  • Minh Ha-Duong

    ()
    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts)

  • Patrice Dumas

    ()
    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts)

Abstract

This paper studies uncertainty about the non-linearity of climate change impact. The DIAM 2.3 model is used to compute the sensitivity of optimal CO2 emissions paths with respect to damage function parameters. This builds upon results of the EMF-14 uncertainty subgroup study by explicitly allowing for the possibility of threshold effects and hockey stick damage functions. It also extends to the cost-benefits framework previous studies about inertia of energy systems. Results show that the existence of a threshold in the damage function is critical to precautionary action. Optimal path are much less sensitive to uncertainty on the scale of the damages than on the threshold values.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00002451.

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Date of creation: 04 Aug 2004
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Publication status: Published, The coupling of climate and economic dynamics. Essays on Integrated Assessment, ed. by Alain Haurie and Laurent Viguier, Springer (Ed.), 2004
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00002451

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00002451/en/
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Related research

Keywords: Changement climatique; modélisation intégrée;

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Cited by:
  1. repec:hal:ciredw:halshs-00007298 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Muller-Furstenberger, Georg & Wagner, Martin, 2007. "Exploring the environmental Kuznets hypothesis: Theoretical and econometric problems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 648-660, May.
  3. Valentina Bosetti & Laurent Gilotte, 2005. "Carbon Capture and Sequestration: How Much Does this Uncertain Option Affect Near-Term Policy Choices?," Working Papers 2005.86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Andrei Bazhanov, 2012. "A Closed-Form Solution to Stollery’s Problem with Damage in Utility," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 365-386, April.
  5. Brian C. O'neill & Paul Crutzen & Arnulf Grübler & Minh Ha-Duong & Klaus Keller & Charles Kolstad & Jonathan Koomey & Andreas Lange & Michael Obersteiner & Michael Oppenheimer & William Pepper & Warr, 2006. "Learning and climate change," Post-Print halshs-00134718, HAL.

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