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Calibrating mathematical programming spatial models
[Calibrage pour les modèles spatiaux de programmation mathématique]

Author

Listed:
  • Quirino Paris

    (UC Davis - University of California [Davis] - UC - University of California)

  • Sophie S. Drogue

    (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech)

  • Giovanni Anania

    (Unical - Università della Calabria [Arcavacata di Rende])

Abstract

Empirical spatial models of trade that are based on a mathematical programming specification often exhibit a large discrepancy between the equilibrium solution and the observed demand, supply and levels of trade flows among countries. This discrepancy may be due to several causes. Assuming, however, that a trade model is not misspecified - in the sense that all the countries involved in the specific commodity trade have been included in the study and that the relevant policy instruments have been taken into account - the cause of discrepancy may be traced either to imprecision of unit transaction costs or to imprecision in the measurement of the demand and supply functions' parameters, or both. Policy assessments based on this type of imprecise models may be unsatisfactory. This paper presents a methodology for calibrating trade models of increasing complexity which are capable of generating solutions that reproduce the commodity trade flows observed in a given base year among all countries. These models may serve as a springboard for assessing the impact of various policies on demand, supply, prices, trade flows, benefits and losses in the countries under study.

Suggested Citation

  • Quirino Paris & Sophie S. Drogue & Giovanni Anania, 2009. "Calibrating mathematical programming spatial models [Calibrage pour les modèles spatiaux de programmation mathématique]," Post-Print hal-02754337, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02754337
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02754337
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zohra Bouamra‐Mechemache & Jean‐Paul Chavas & Tom Cox & Vincent Réquillart, 2002. "EU Dairy Policy Reform and Future WTO Negotiations: a Spatial Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 233-257, July.
    2. Anania, Giovanni, 2001. "Modeling Agricultural Trade Liberalization. A Review," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20758, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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    4. Zohra Bouamra-Mechemache & K. Dartigues & Vincent V. Requillart, 2002. "EU dairy policy reform and future WTO negotiations [Réforme de la politique laitière européenne et nouvelles négociations de l'OMC]," Post-Print hal-02670390, HAL.
    5. Jansson, Torbjörn & Heckelei, Thomas, 2009. "A new estimator for trade costs and its small sample properties," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 489-498, March.
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    8. Quirino Paris, 1981. "Multiple Optimal Solutions in Linear Programming Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(4), pages 724-727.
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    Cited by:

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    4. Valin, Hugo & Havlik, Petr & Mosnier, Aline & Obersteiner, Michael, 2012. "Impacts of Alternative Climate Change Mitigation Policies on Food Consumption under various Diet Scenarios," Conference papers 332253, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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