IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01277584.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Donier

    (LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, CFM - Capital Fund Management - Capital Fund Management)

  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

    (CFM - Capital Fund Management - Capital Fund Management, CFM-Imperial Institute of Quantitative Finance - Imperial College London)

Abstract

Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical studies suggest that large price jumps cannot be explained by news and are the result of endogenous feedback loops. Although plausible, a clear-cut empirical evidence for such a scenario is still lacking. Here we show how crashes are conditioned by the market liquidity, for which we propose a new measure inspired by recent theories of market impact and based on readily available, public information. Our results open the possibility of a dynamical evaluation of liquidity risk and early warning signs of market instabilities, and could lead to a quantitative description of the mechanisms leading to market crashes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Donier & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2015. "Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights," Post-Print hal-01277584, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01277584
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0139356.g006
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01277584
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01277584/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0139356.g006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P. Weber & B. Rosenow, 2005. "Order book approach to price impact," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 357-364.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 2002. "Events That Shook the Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 713-732, October.
    3. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren & Marc Potters, 2006. "Random walks, liquidity molasses and critical response in financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 115-123.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Iacopo Mastromatteo & Bence Toth & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2014. "Anomalous impact in reaction-diffusion models," Papers 1403.3571, arXiv.org.
    8. Iacopo Mastromatteo & Bence Toth & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2013. "Agent-based models for latent liquidity and concave price impact," Papers 1311.6262, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2014.
    9. Armand Joulin & Augustin Lefevre & Daniel Grunberg & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2008. "Stock price jumps: news and volume play a minor role," Papers 0803.1769, arXiv.org.
    10. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    11. Ali, Robleh & Barrdear, John & Clews, Roger & Southgate, James, 2014. "The economics of digital currencies," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(3), pages 276-286.
    12. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    13. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
    14. Esteban Moro & Javier Vicente & Luis G. Moyano & Austin Gerig & J. Doyne Farmer & Gabriella Vaglica & Fabrizio Lillo & Rosario N. Mantegna, 2009. "Market impact and trading profile of large trading orders in stock markets," Papers 0908.0202, arXiv.org.
    15. Bence Toth & Yves Lemperiere & Cyril Deremble & Joachim de Lataillade & Julien Kockelkoren & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2011. "Anomalous price impact and the critical nature of liquidity in financial markets," Papers 1105.1694, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2011.
    16. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
    17. Nataliya Bershova & Dmitry Rakhlin, 2013. "The non-linear market impact of large trades: evidence from buy-side order flow," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1759-1778, November.
    18. X. Brokmann & E. Serie & J. Kockelkoren & J. -P. Bouchaud, 2014. "Slow decay of impact in equity markets," Papers 1407.3390, arXiv.org.
    19. J. Doyne Farmer & Austin Gerig & Fabrizio Lillo & Henri Waelbroeck, 2013. "How efficiency shapes market impact," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1743-1758, November.
    20. Matthieu Wyart & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren & Marc Potters & Michele Vettorazzo, 2008. "Relation between bid-ask spread, impact and volatility in order-driven markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 41-57.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonathan Donier & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2015. "Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(10), pages 1-11, October.
    2. Jonathan Donier & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2015. "Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights," Papers 1503.06704, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2015.
    3. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Damien Challet, 2016. "Why have asset price properties changed so little in 200 years," Papers 1605.00634, arXiv.org.
    4. Jonathan Donier & Julius Bonart, 2014. "A Million Metaorder Analysis of Market Impact on the Bitcoin," Papers 1412.4503, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2015.
    5. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2021. "The Inelastic Market Hypothesis: A Microstructural Interpretation," Papers 2108.00242, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    6. Olivier Guéant, 2016. "The Financial Mathematics of Market Liquidity: From Optimal Execution to Market Making," Post-Print hal-01393136, HAL.
    7. Emilio Said, 2022. "Market Impact: Empirical Evidence, Theory and Practice," Working Papers hal-03668669, HAL.
    8. Elia Zarinelli & Michele Treccani & J. Doyne Farmer & Fabrizio Lillo, 2014. "Beyond the square root: Evidence for logarithmic dependence of market impact on size and participation rate," Papers 1412.2152, arXiv.org.
    9. Iacopo Mastromatteo & Bence Toth & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2013. "Agent-based models for latent liquidity and concave price impact," Papers 1311.6262, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2014.
    10. Weibing Huang & Charles-Albert Lehalle & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2015. "Simulating and Analyzing Order Book Data: The Queue-Reactive Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(509), pages 107-122, March.
    11. Antoine Fosset & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2020. "Endogenous Liquidity Crises," Post-Print hal-02567495, HAL.
    12. Antoine Fosset & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2020. "Endogenous Liquidity Crises," Working Papers hal-02567495, HAL.
    13. Zoltan Eisler & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2016. "Price impact without order book: A study of the OTC credit index market," Papers 1609.04620, arXiv.org.
    14. Ryohei Hisano & Didier Sornette & Takayuki Mizuno & Takaaki Ohnishi & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "High Quality Topic Extraction from Business News Explains Abnormal Financial Market Volatility," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-12, June.
    15. Antoine Fosset & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2019. "Endogenous Liquidity Crises," Papers 1912.00359, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    16. Emilio Said & Ahmed Bel Hadj Ayed & Alexandre Husson & Fr'ed'eric Abergel, 2018. "Market Impact: A Systematic Study of Limit Orders," Papers 1802.08502, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    17. Thibault Jaisson, 2014. "Market impact as anticipation of the order flow imbalance," Papers 1402.1288, arXiv.org.
    18. Fabio Caccioli & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & J. Doyne Farmer, 2012. "A proposal for impact-adjusted valuation: Critical leverage and execution risk," Papers 1204.0922, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2012.
    19. Bordalo, Pedro & Gennaioli, Nicola & Kwon, Spencer Yongwook & Shleifer, Andrei, 2021. "Diagnostic bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1060-1077.
    20. Coppock, Lee A. & Harper, Daniel Q. & Holt, Charles A., 2021. "Capital constraints and asset bubbles: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 75-88.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01277584. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.