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Situation politico-économique et résultats des élections législatives françaises

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Auberger

    (LAEP - LAboratoire d'Economie Publique - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Eric Dubois

    (LAEP - LAboratoire d'Economie Publique - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

Abstract

The aim of this article is to build and estimate a model that explain and forecast the result of the French legislative elections by department. This model, that constitutes the first attempt for such geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past. Furthermore, its behavior for the elections of 2002 was very satisfactory. This model is thus a reliable alternative to the vote intentions polls as an electoral forecasting instrument.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Auberger & Eric Dubois, 2003. "Situation politico-économique et résultats des élections législatives françaises," Post-Print hal-00800619, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00800619
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00800619
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135-135.
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    Cited by:

    1. Éric Dubois, 2007. "Les déterminants économiques du vote 1976-2006 : trente ans de fonctions de vote en France," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 117(2), pages 243-270.
    2. Hamza Bennani & Pauline Gandré & Benjamin Monnery, 2020. "Les déterminants locaux de la participation numérique au grand débat national : une analyse économétrique," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 71(4), pages 715-737.
    3. Antoine Auberger, 2021. "Vote, popularity, unemployment and French presidential elections [Vote, popularité, chômage et élections présidentielles françaises]," Working Papers hal-03480855, HAL.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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