The predictive role of counterfactuals
AbstractWe suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-00712888.
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published, Theory and Decision, 2012, 73, 1, NC
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal-hec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00712888
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
induction; counterfactuals; prediction;
Other versions of this item:
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2012-07-14 (Forecasting)
- NEP-HIS-2012-07-14 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Battigalli, Pierpaolo & Siniscalchi, Marciano, 1999.
"Hierarchies of Conditional Beliefs and Interactive Epistemology in Dynamic Games,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 188-230, September.
- Pierpaolo Battigalli, . "Hierarchies of Conditional Beliefs and Interactive Epistemology in Dynamic Games," Working Papers 111, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Aumann, Robert J., 1995. "Backward induction and common knowledge of rationality," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 6-19.
- Stalnaker, Robert, 1996. "Knowledge, Belief and Counterfactual Reasoning in Games," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 133-163, October.
- Dov Samet, 1994.
"Hypothetical Knowledge and Games with Perfect Information,"
Game Theory and Information
9408001, EconWPA, revised 17 Aug 1994.
- Samet, Dov, 1996. "Hypothetical Knowledge and Games with Perfect Information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 230-251, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.