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The predictive role of counterfactuals

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Author Info

  • Alfredo Di Tillio

    (Bocconi University - Bocconi University)

  • Itzhak Gilboa

    ()
    (GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - GROUPE HEC - CNRS : UMR2959, Tel-Aviv University - Tel-Aviv University)

  • Larry Samuelson

    (Department of Economics - Yale University)

Abstract

We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-00712888.

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Date of creation: Jul 2012
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Publication status: Published, Theory and Decision, 2012, 73, 1, NC
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00712888

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal-hec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00712888
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Keywords: induction; counterfactuals; prediction;

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  1. Battigalli, Pierpaolo & Siniscalchi, Marciano, 1999. "Hierarchies of Conditional Beliefs and Interactive Epistemology in Dynamic Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 188-230, September.
  2. Aumann, Robert J., 1995. "Backward induction and common knowledge of rationality," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 6-19.
  3. Stalnaker, Robert, 1996. "Knowledge, Belief and Counterfactual Reasoning in Games," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 133-163, October.
  4. Dov Samet, 1994. "Hypothetical Knowledge and Games with Perfect Information," Game Theory and Information 9408001, EconWPA, revised 17 Aug 1994.
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