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Building world narratives for climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses

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  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    ()
    (CNRM-GAME - Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique - CNRS : URA1357 - INSU - Météo France, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech)

  • Przyluski Valentin

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech)

  • Adrien Vogt-Schilb

    ()
    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech)

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on human systems depend not only on the level of emissions but also on how inherently vulnerable these systems are to the changing climate. The large uncertainties over future development and structure of societies and economies mean that the assessment of climate change efects is complex. One way to deal with this complexity is by using scenario analysis that takes account of these socio-economic diferences. The challenge is to identify the dimensions along which societies and economies evolve over time in such a way as to cover sufciently diferent vulnerability patterns. This conceptual efort is critical for the development of informative scenarios. Here, we identify three dimensions that take into account the most relevant factors that defne the vulnerability of human systems to climate change and their ability to adapt to it.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-00618688.

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Date of creation: 15 Jul 2011
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Publication status: Published, Nature Climate Change, 2011, 1, 3, 151-155
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00618688

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal-enpc.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00618688/en/
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Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

Related research

Keywords: impacts; vulnerability; adaptation; climate change; scenario; prospective; narratives;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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  1. Chen, Robert S. & Kates, Robert W., 1994. "World food security: prospects and trends," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 192-208, April.
  2. Junichi Fujino, Rajesh Nair, Mikiko Kainuma, Toshihiko Masui and Yuzuru Matsuoka , 2006. "Multi-gas Mitigation Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios Using Aim Global Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 343-354.
  3. Stéphane Hallegatte & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2011. "Understanding climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation at city scale: an introduction," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 1-12, January.
  4. Susmita Dasgupta & Benoit Laplante & Hua Wang & David Wheeler, 2002. "Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 147-168, Winter.
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