A note on Hubbert's hypotheses and techniques
AbstractMany have attempted to forecast the date of the production peak and the volume of the ultimate reserves of a mineral commodity, using techniques derived from Hubbert's thesis. This note aims at exploring the scientific foundations and therefore the scope of validity of these forecasting techniques. Looking at the basic assumptions of Hubbert's thesis, it concludes that these techniques should not be used to forecast neither the peak (or plateau) of the annual production rate, nor the ultimate reserves of any mineral, unless given exceptional conditions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-00582825.
Date of creation: 2011
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2011-04-16 (Forecasting)
- NEP-HPE-2011-04-16 (History & Philosophy of Economics)
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