Hubbert's Oil Peak Revisited by a Simulation Model
AbstractAs conventional oil reserves are declining, the debate on the oil production peak has become a burning issue. An increasing number of papers refer to Hubbert's peak oil theory to forecast the date of the production peak, both at regional and world levels. However, in our views, this theory lacks microeconomic foundations. Notably, it does not assume that exploration and production decisions in the oil industry depend on market prices. In an attempt to overcome these shortcomings, we have built an adaptative model, accounting for the behavior of one agent, standing for the competitive exploration-production industry, subjected to incomplete but improving information on the remaining reserves. Our work yields challenging results on the reasons for an Hubbert type peak oil, lying mainly "above the ground", both at regional and world levels, and on the shape of the production and marginal cost trajectories.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-00530077.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal-ensmp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00530077/en/
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-11-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2010-11-13 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-CWA-2010-11-13 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-ENE-2010-11-13 (Energy Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.