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The Dispersion of Age Differences between Partners and the Asymptotic Dynamics of the HIV Epidemic

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  • Hippolyte D'Albis

    ()
    (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris 1 - Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron

    ()
    (MIA - Mathématiques, Image et Applications - Université de La Rochelle : EA3165)

  • Elodie Djemaï

    ()
    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine, DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme - Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD])

  • Arnaud Ducrot

    ()
    (IMB - Institut de Mathématiques de Bordeaux - CNRS : UMR5251 - Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux I - Université Victor Segalen - Bordeaux II)

Abstract

In this article, the effect of a change in the distribution of age differences between sexual partners on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic is studied. In a gender and age structured compartmental model, it is shown that if the variance of the distribution is small enough, an increase in this variance strongly increases the basic reproduction number. Moreover, if the variance is large enough, the mean age difference barely affects the basic reproduction number. We therefore conclude that the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium relies more on the variance than on the mean.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00717322.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00717322

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Keywords: Epidemiological models.;

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  1. Visite guidée au coeur des travaux du Meilleur jeune économiste 2012 (2/2)
    by Matthieu Solignac in Regards croisés sur l'économie on 2012-06-10 22:05:40

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