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Fractional and seasonal filtering

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  • Dominique Guegan

    ()
    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)

  • Laurent Ferrara

    (DGEI-DAMEP - Banque de France)

Abstract

We introduce in this study a new strategy to model simultaneously persistence and seasonality inside economic data using different stochastic filters based on the Gegenbauer modelling. The limits and advantages of these filters are discussed in order to improve the adjustment of economic series, particularly when specific trend is observed. The series of new cars registrations in the Euro-zone is modelled using the previous filters

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00646178.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Publication status: Published, Proceeding Book on the Conference Seasonality, Seasonal adjustment and its implication for short term analysis and forecasting, Eurostat (Ed.), 2008, 121-132
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00646178

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Keywords: Persistence - Seasonality - Fractional filter - Euro-zone new car registrations.;

References

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  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Long Memory At The Long-Run And The Seasonal Monthly Frequencies In The Us Money Stock," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-16, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  2. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Fractional seasonality: Models and Application to Economic Activity in the Euro Area," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00185370, HAL.
  3. Ferrara, Laurent & Guegan, Dominique, 2001. "Forecasting with k-Factor Gegenbauer Processes: Theory and Applications," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 581-601, December.
  4. Josu Artech & Peter M Robinson, 1998. "Semiparametric Inference in Seasonal and Cyclical Long Memory Processes - (Now published in Journal of Time Series Analysis, 21 (2000), pp.1-25.)," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /1998/359, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
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