Alternative methods for forecasting GDP
AbstractAn empirical forecast accuracy comparison of the non-parametric method, known as multivariate Nearest Neighbor method, with parametric VAR modelling is conducted on the euro area GDP. Using both methods for nowcasting and forecasting the GDP, through the estimation of economic indicators plugged in the bridge equations, we get more accurate forecasts when using nearest neighbor method. We prove also the asymptotic normality of the multivariate k-nearest neighbor regression estimator for dependent time series, providing confidence intervals for point forecast in time series.
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Date of creation: Jul 2010
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Forecast; economic indicators; GDP; Euro area; VAR; multivariate k-nearest neighbor regression; asymptotic normality.;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-07-31 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ETS-2010-07-31 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-MAC-2010-07-31 (Macroeconomics)
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