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Forecasting VaR and Expected Shortfall using Dynamical Systems: A Risk Management Strategy

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Author Info
Cyril Caillault (Fortis Investments - Fortis investments)
Dominique Guegan () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)

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Abstract

Using non-parametric and parametric models, we show that the bivariate distribution of an Asian portfolio is not stable along all the period under study. We suggest several dynamic models to compute two market risk measures, the Value at Risk and the Expected Shortfall: the RiskMetrics methodology, the Multivariate GARCH models, the Multivariate Markov-Switching models, the empirical histogram and the dynamic copulas. We discuss the choice of the best method with respect to the policy management of bank supervisors. The copula approach seems to be a good compromise between all these models. It permits taking financial crises into account and obtaining a low capital requirement during the most important crises.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00375765_v1.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Publication status: Published, Frontiers in finance and economics, 2009, 6, 1, 26-50
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00375765_v1

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Keywords: Value at Risk ; Expected Shortfall ; Copulas ; Risk management ; GARCH models ; Markov switching models;

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  1. Fermanian, Jean-David, 2005. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 119-152, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 1998. "Horizon Problems and Extreme Events in Financial Risk Management," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-16, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. M. Gilli & E. Kellezi & H. Hysi, 2006. "A Data-Driven Optimization Heuristic for Downside Risk Minimization," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 355, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dominique Guegan, 2007. "La persistance dans les marchés financiers," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00179269_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dominique Guegan, 2005. "How can we define the concept of long memory ? An econometric survey," Post-Print halshs-00179343_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Cyril Caillault & Dominique Guegan, 2005. "Empirical Estimation of Tail Dependence Using Copulas. Application to Asian Markets," Post-Print halshs-00180865_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Francq, C. & Zakoian, J. -M., 2001. "Stationarity of multivariate Markov-switching ARMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 339-364, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Granger, Clive W.J. & Terasvirta, Timo & Patton, Andrew J., 2006. "Common factors in conditional distributions for bivariate time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 43-57, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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