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Modelling Transition And International Opening In Asia: The Case Of Vietnam With A Comparison With China And The "Asian Tigers"

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  • Alain Sand-Zantman

    ()
    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

  • Jean-Louis Brillet

    (INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques - INSEE)

  • Cuong Le Van

    ()
    (CERMSEM - CEntre de Recherche en Mathématiques, Statistique et Économie Mathématique - CNRS : UMR8095 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Jacques Mazier

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (ancienne affiliation) - Université Paris XIII - Paris Nord - CNRS : UMR7115)

Abstract

This paper describes the multisectoral macroeconomic model of a small developing economy in transition, in order to highlight linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy, and consequences of external opening up. Agriculture is a supply sector, sticky in the short range with market clearing by price adjustment. The non agricultural sector is demand-led, with imperfect competition (and hence sticky prices and indexed nominal wages). According to this dual theoretical pattern, labor market is segmented with an unlimited supply in the rural area. This part of labor force is employed in the agricultural sector and in the rural non agricultural one. Urban workers are employed in the non agricultural sector but may face unemployment. The wage gap between urban and ruralareas induces migration, according to a Harris Todaro mechanism. This framework is applied to the Vietnam case. A calibrated quantitative model performs a base line simulation from 1993 to 2010, following approximately the path designed by the Vietnamese government. Finally, this model is used to sketch various scenarios, among which traditional macroeconomic packages, structural reforms, and external shocks.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00372748.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Publication status: Published, Comparative Economic Studies, 2000, 42, 93-130
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00372748

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Keywords: Vietnam; multisectoral models; development; transition;

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  1. Nicholas Crafts, 1999. "East Asian Growth Before and After the Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 2.
  2. Rattso, Jorn, 1989. "Macrodynamic adjustment mechanisms in a dual semi-industrialized economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 47-69, January.
  3. Cardoso, Eliana A., 1981. "Food supply and inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 269-284, June.
  4. Torsten Sløk & Sanja Kalra, 1999. "Inflation and Growth in Transition," IMF Working Papers 99/118, International Monetary Fund.
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