Modelling Transition And International Opening In Asia: The Case Of Vietnam With A Comparison With China And The "Asian Tigers"
AbstractThis paper describes the multisectoral macroeconomic model of a small developing economy in transition, in order to highlight linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy, and consequences of external opening up. Agriculture is a supply sector, sticky in the short range with market clearing by price adjustment. The non agricultural sector is demand-led, with imperfect competition (and hence sticky prices and indexed nominal wages). According to this dual theoretical pattern, labor market is segmented with an unlimited supply in the rural area. This part of labor force is employed in the agricultural sector and in the rural non agricultural one. Urban workers are employed in the non agricultural sector but may face unemployment. The wage gap between urban and ruralareas induces migration, according to a Harris Todaro mechanism. This framework is applied to the Vietnam case. A calibrated quantitative model performs a base line simulation from 1993 to 2010, following approximately the path designed by the Vietnamese government. Finally, this model is used to sketch various scenarios, among which traditional macroeconomic packages, structural reforms, and external shocks.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00372748.
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published, Comparative Economic Studies, 2000, 42, 93-130
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Vietnam; multisectoral models; development; transition;
Other versions of this item:
- Alain Sand-Zantman & Jean Louis Brillet & Cuong Le Van & Jacques Mazier, 2000. "Modelling Transition And International Opening In Asia: The Case Of Vietnam With A Comparison With China And The “Asian Tigers”," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(4), pages 93-130, December.
- Sand-Zantman, A. & Brillet, J.L. & Le Van, C. & Mazier, J., 2000. "Modelling Transition and International Opening in Asia: The Case of Vietnam with a Comparison with China and the "Asian Tigers"," Papiers d'Economie MathÃÂ©matique et Applications 2000.31, UniversitÃ© PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
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- Torsten SlÃ¸k & Sanja Kalra, 1999. "Inflation and Growth in Transition," IMF Working Papers 99/118, International Monetary Fund.
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