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De usu artis conjectandi in jure : quid de oeconomia (politica) ?

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  • Pierre-Charles Pradier

    ()
    (SAMOS - Statistique Appliquée et MOdélisation Stochastique - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)

Abstract

Les questions discutées dans l'Ars Conjectandi n'intéressent pas les économistes avant la transformation de la discipline en « science des choix », dans les années 1930. L'ouvrage de Jacques Bernoulli, comme certains travaux de ses neveux Nicolas et Daniel, marquent pourtant la naissance de la rationalité économique dans son sens le plus large. Jacques ébauche la rationalité décisionnelle, Nicolas cherche à concilier les raisons des parties mues par le même bon sens mercantile, par ce même intérêt bien compris que Daniel illustre d'exemples. Le programme de recherche dessiné par la famille Bernoulli occupe aujourd'hui les économistes. Si certains héritiers de Keynes expriment encore des doutes sur la décision, doutes liés à l'existence de l'incertitude, quelques fondamentalistes considèrent la théorie de la décision économique (bayésienne) comme achevée. Ceux-ci conçoivent alors l'économie comme la représentation d'un monde peuplé de décideurs bayésiens égoïstes. Entre les deux se développent le champ de la stochastique moderne, et la réflexion sur ses usages.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00274325.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Publication status: Published, Journal Electronique d'Histoire des Probabilités et de la Statistique, 2006, 2, 1b, 1-15
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00274325

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Keywords: Bernoulli Ars Conjectandi Stochastique Statistique Economie Politique;

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  1. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279.
  2. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1952. "The Expected-Utility Hypothesis and the Measurability of Utility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60, pages 463.
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