Dominique Guegan () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I) Florian Ielpo () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I)
Additional information is available for the following
registered author(s):
US interest rates'overnight reaction to macroeconomic announcements is of tremendous importance trading fixed income securities. Most of the empirical studies achieved so far either assumed that the interest rates' reaction to announcements is linear or independent to the state of the economy. We investigate the shape of the tern structure reaction of the swap rates to announcements using several linear and non-linear time series models. The empirical results yield several not-so-well-known stylized facts about the bond market. First, and although we used a daily dataset, we find that the introduction of non linear models leads to the finding of a significant number of macroeconomic figures that actually produce an effect over the yield curve. Most of the studies using daily datasets did not corroborate so far this conclusion. Second, we find that the term structure response to announcements can be much more complicated that what is generally found : we noticed at least four types of patterns in the term structure reaction of interest rates across maturities, including the hump-shaped one that is generally considered. Third, by comparing the shapes of the rates' term structure reaction to announcements with the first four factors obtained when performing a principal component analysis of the daily changes in the swap rates, we propose a first interpretation and classification of these different shapes. Fourth, we find that the existence of some outliers in the one-day changes in interest rates usually leads to a strong underestimation of the reaction of interest rates to announcements, explaining the different results obtained between high-frequency and daily datasets : the first type of study seems to lead to the finding of fewer market mover announcements.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Length: Date of creation: Oct 2007 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00188331_v1
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00188331/en/ Contact details of provider: Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (CCSD).
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005.
"No-arbitrage Taylor rules,"
Proceedings,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)