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Real-time detection of the business cycle using SETAR models

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Author Info
Laurent Ferrara (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I)
Dominique Guegan () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I)

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Abstract

We consider a threshold time series model in order to take into account some stylized facts of the business cycle such as asymmetries in the phases. Our aim is to point out some thresholds under (over) which a signal of turning point could be given. First, we introduce the various threshold models and we discuss both their statistical theoretical and empirical properties. Specifically, we review the classical techniques to estimate the number of regimes, the threshold, the delay and the parameters of the model. Then, we apply these models to the euro area industrial production index to detect, through a dynamic simulation approach, the dates of peaks and thoughs in business cycle.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00185372_v1.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Publication status: Published, Growth and Cycle in the Euro-zone, Palgrave MacMillan, New York (Ed.), 2006, 221-232
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00185372_v1

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Keywords: Economic cycle – Turning point detection Threshold model – Euro area IPI;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-41, March-Apr. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Dick van Dijk & Timo Teräsvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Tommaso Proietti, 1998. "Characterizing Asymmetries in Business Cycles Using Smooth-Transition Structural Time-Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 3(3). [Downloadable!]
  4. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone," Working Papers 2007_33, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Wai-Cheung Ip, 2003. "Testing and estimation of thresholds based on wavelets in heteroscedastic threshold autoregressive models," Biometrika, Oxford University Press for Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(3), pages 703-716, September.
  6. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2001. "Classical and Modern Business Cycle Measurement: The European Case," Economics Series Working Papers 060, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 2(1). [Downloadable!]
  9. Clements, M.P. & Smith J., 1998. "Evaluating The Forecast of Densities of Linear and Non-Linear Models: Applications to Output Growth and Unemployment," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 509, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  10. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  11. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "Markov-Switching Procedures for Dating the Euro-Zone Business Cycle," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 339-351.
  12. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-25, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 47-61. [Downloadable!]
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