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Incertitude stratégique et sélection d'équilibre : deux applications

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Author Info
Jean-Marc Tallon () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I)

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Abstract

L'intérêt de l'approche par les jeux globaux ("global games'') est précisément d'ancrer les anticipations sur des variables exogènes réelles. On peut ainsi garder l'aspect auto-réalisateur des anticipations mais en restaurant l'unicité de l'équilibre et donc un meilleur pouvoir prédictif du modèle. Nous illustrons ces mécanismes sur deux exemples. Le premier a trait au choix résidentiel d'agents qui ont une préférence "identitaire''. Le second a trait à la contagion de paniques bancaires d'un pays à un autre. De manière plus générale, tous les jeux qui présentent des complémentarités stratégiques sont susceptibles d'être analysés au moyen des techniques des "global games''. Il convient toutefois de rappeler que les techniques utilisées demeurent assez spécifiques: l'incertitude stratégique porte essentiellement sur les croyances de premier degré des autres acteurs. Or, si de manière plus générale on suppose que cette incertitude peut porter sur des ordres plus élevés, les conclusions des modèles peuvent changer. Ainsi, Weinstein et Yildiz (2004) montrent que dans un oligopole de Cournot, il y a une très grande multiplicité d'équilibres si on suppose que l'incertitude porte sur les croyances de niveaux suffisamment élevés.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00177058_v1.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Publication status: Published, Revue d'Economie Industrielle, 2006, 114-115, 105-118
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00177058_v1

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Related research
Keywords: jeux globaux; complémentarité stratégique;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Rubinstein, Ariel, 1989. "The Electronic Mail Game: Strategic Behavior under "Almost Common Knowledge."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 385-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Frankel, David M. & Morris, Stephen & Pauzner, Ady, 2003. "Equilibrium selection in global games with strategic complementarities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Goldstein, Itay & Pauzner, Ady, 2004. "Contagion of self-fulfilling financial crises due to diversification of investment portfolios," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 151-183, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2004. "Optimal Degree of Public Information Dissemination," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Xavier Vives, 2005. "Complementarities and Games: New Developments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 437-479, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2005. "Speculative Attacks with Multiple Sources of Public Information," Discussion Papers 157, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Frankel, David M. & Pauzner, Ady, 2002. "Expectations and the Timing of Neighborhood Change," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 295-314, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Amil Dasgupta, 2004. "Financial Contagion Through Capital Connections: A Model of the Origin and Spread of Bank Panics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1049-1084, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Tood Keister, 2005. "Expectations and Contagion in Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Working Papers 0501, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
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