Thibault Gajdos () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I) Takashi Hayashi () (Department of Economics, University of Texas - University of Texas at Austin) Jean-Marc Tallon () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I) Jean-Christophe Vergnaud () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I)
Additional information is available for the following
registered author(s):
This paper presents an axiomatic model of decision making which incorporates objective but imprecise information. We axiomatize a decision criterion of the multiple priors (or maxmin expected utility) type. The model achieves two primary objectives. First, it explains how subjective belief varies with information. Second, it identifies an explicit attitude toward imprecision that underlies usual hedging axioms. Information is assumed to take the form of a probability-possibility set, that is, a set P of probability measures on the state space. The decision maker is told that the true probability law lies in P. She is assumed to rank pairs of the form (P,f) where P is a probability-possibility set and f is an act mapping states into outcomes. The representation result delivers multiple-priors utility at each probability-possibility set. There is a mapping that gives for each probability-possibility set the subjective set of priors. This allows both subjective expected utility when the subjective set of priors is reduced to a singleton and the other extreme where the decision maker takes the worst case scenario in the entire probability-possibility set. We show that the relation «more averse to imprecision» is characterized by inclusion of the sets of priors, irrespective of the utility functions that capture risk attitude. We characterize, under extra axioms, a more precise functional form, in which the subjective set of priors is obtained by (i) solving for the «mean value» of the probability-possibility set and (ii) shrinking the probability-possibility set toward the mean value to a degree determined by preference.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Length: Date of creation: Jul 2006 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00130179_v1
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00130179/en/ Contact details of provider: Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (CCSD).
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)