IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/halshs-00111186.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade, demand spillovers and industrialization: The emerging global middle class in perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Alain Desdoigts

    (Université Paris-Est - Cité Descartes, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Fernando Jaramillo

    (Universidad del Rosario - Facultad de Economia)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate international demand spillovers brought about by a global middle class and their impact on trade patterns and industrialization. We propose a multi-industry and two-country trade model featuring demand complementarities propagating increasing returns across industries and national boundaries. We show how the international extent of demand spillovers depends upon asymmetries in domestic income distribution, labor efficiency, and labor force size; that is, on the global distribution of real income.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Desdoigts & Fernando Jaramillo, 2009. "Trade, demand spillovers and industrialization: The emerging global middle class in perspective," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00111186, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00111186
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00111186v3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00111186v3/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Devashish Mitra & Vitor Trindade, 2005. "Inequality and trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 1253-1271, November.
    2. Reto Foellmi & Josef Zweimuller, 2006. "Income Distribution and Demand-Induced Innovations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 941-960.
    3. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1995. "Complementarities and Cumulative Processes in Models of Monopolistic Competition," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 701-729, June.
    4. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    5. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2000. "A Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods under Nonhomothetic Preferences: Demand Complementarities, Income Distribution, and North-South Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(6), pages 1093-1120, December.
    6. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-1026, October.
    7. Pundarik Mukhopadhaya, 2004. "World Income Inequality data base (WIID) Review," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 2(3), pages 229-234, December.
    8. Muhammed Dalgin & Vitor Trindade & Devashish Mitra, 2008. "Inequality, Nonhomothetic Preferences, and Trade: A Gravity Approach," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(3), pages 747-774, January.
    9. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 1989. "Income Distribution, Market Size, and Industrialization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(3), pages 537-564.
    10. L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf, 2007. "Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6632, December.
    11. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "Increasing returns, imperfect markets, and trade theory," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 325-365, Elsevier.
    12. Melitz, Marc J., 2005. "When and how should infant industries be protected?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 177-196, May.
    13. Solow, Robert M., 2005. "Reflections on Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 3-10, Elsevier.
    14. World Bank, 2007. "Global Economic Prospects 2007 : Managing the Next Wave of Globalization," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7157, December.
    15. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    16. Francois, Joseph F & Kaplan, Seth, 1996. "Aggregate Demand Shifts, Income Distribution, and the Linder Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 244-250, May.
    17. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-839, December.
    18. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "Decreasing Costs in International Trade and Frank Graham's Argument for Protection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1243-1268, September.
    19. Frank D. Graham, 1923. "Some Aspects of Protection Further Considered," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 37(2), pages 199-227.
    20. Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 1996. "Multinationals, Linkages, and Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 852-873, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Belke, Ansgar & Kronen, Dominik, 2017. "Exchange rate bands of inaction and hysteresis in EU exports to the global economy: The role of uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 695, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Reto Foellmi & Christian Hepenstrick & Zweimüller Josef, 2018. "International Arbitrage and the Extensive Margin of Trade between Rich and Poor Countries," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 475-510.
    3. Abebe Shimeles & Mthuli Ncube, 2015. "The Making of the Middle-Class in Africa: Evidence from DHS Data," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(2), pages 178-193, February.
    4. Reham Rizk & Ricardo Nogales, 2017. "Revisiting the Middle-Class Myth: Evidence From A Cross-Country Analysis of African Social Progress," Working Papers 1139, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 2003.
    5. Iader Giraldo & Fernando Jaramillo, 2018. "Productivity, Demand, and the Home Market Effect," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 517-545, July.
    6. Alain Desdoigts & Fernando Jaramillo, 2020. "Bounded Learning by Doing, Inequality, and Multi-Sector Growth: A Middle-Class Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 198-219, April.
    7. Reto Foellmi & Christian Hepenstrick & Josef Zweim ller, 2010. "Non-homothetic preferences, parallel imports and the extensive margin of international trade," Diskussionsschriften dp1009, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    8. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Zeidan, Rodrigo, 2016. "A dead-end tunnel or the light at the end of it: The role of BRICs in European exports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 237-248.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Reto Foellmi & Christian Hepenstrick & Josef Zweim ller, 2010. "Non-homothetic preferences, parallel imports and the extensive margin of international trade," Diskussionsschriften dp1009, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    2. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2019. "Engel's Law in the Global Economy: Demand‐Induced Patterns of Structural Change, Innovation, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 497-528, March.
    3. Demmou, Lilas, 2012. "How product innovation in the North may immiserize the South," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-304.
    4. Hartmut Egger & Simone Habermeyer, 2019. "Nonhomothetic preferences and rent sharing in an open economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 7522, CESifo.
    5. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    6. Devashish Mitra & Vitor Trindade, 2005. "Inequality and trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 1253-1271, November.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10331 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Martine Carré & Alessandro Riboni, 2012. "Unequal societies, Unequal Terms of Trade and Trade Policy," Post-Print hal-01515866, HAL.
    9. David Hummels & Chong Xiang & Yo Chul Choi, 2010. "Explaining Import Variety and Quality: the Role of the Income Distribution," LIS Working papers 541, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    10. Konstantin Kucheryavyy & Gary Lyn & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2023. "Grounded by Gravity: A Well-Behaved Trade Model with Industry-Level Economies of Scale," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 372-412, April.
    11. Alexander Tarasov, 2012. "Trade Liberalization and Welfare Inequality: A Demand-Based Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(4), pages 1296-1317, December.
    12. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2010. "External Economies and International Trade Redux," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(2), pages 829-858.
    13. Tarasov Alexander, 2009. "Income Distribution, Market Structure, and Individual Welfare," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-39, December.
    14. Ciarli, Tommaso & Valente, Marco, 2016. "The complex interactions between economic growth and market concentration in a model of structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 38-54.
    15. Joseph F. Francois & Douglas Nelson, 2002. "A Geometry Of Specialisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 649-678, July.
    16. Matsuyama, Kiminori & Fujiwara, Ippei, 2022. "A Technology-Gap Model of Premature Deindustrialization," CEPR Discussion Papers 15530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Reto Foellmi & Josef Zweim ller, 2010. "Mass versus Exclusive Goods, and Formal-Sector Employment," Diskussionsschriften dp1005, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    18. Breinlich, Holger & Cuñat, Alejandro, 2013. "Geography, non-homotheticity, and industrialization: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 133-153.
    19. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Sebastian Vollmer, 2016. "Bilateral Trade Flows and Income Distribution Similarity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(5), pages 1-12, May.
    20. Hartmut Egger & Simone Habermeyer, 2022. "How preferences shape the welfare and employment effects of trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(3), pages 815-853, August.
    21. Yo Chul Choi & David Hummels & Chong Xiang, 2006. "Explaining Import Variety and Quality: The Role of the Income Distribution," NBER Working Papers 12531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    spillovers; nonhomothetic preferences; world income distribution; Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00111186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.