Impact of Population Aging on Japanese International Travel
AbstractIn this paper we forecast Japanese international travel to 2025. In addition to the usual economic variables, our model also captures both population aging and cohort effects on Japanese travel abroad. We predict the number of future Japanese overseas trips for males and females separately by five-year age groups and in five-year increments. We conclude that the Japanese will continue to travel abroad in increasing numbers but population aging will dramatically slow overall future Japanese overseas travel. While the number of “senior” travelers is predicted to increase sharply, we foresee fewer overseas trips taken by Japanese, especially among women, in the 20s and early 30s age groups. Finally, we examine the responses of the industry and the public sector in Japan to implications of a rapidly aging population on future international travel
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 200408.
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
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