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Bilateral Trade Patterns and Welfare: An Egypt-EU Preferential Trade Agreement

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  • Denise Eby Konan

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Keith E Maskus

Abstract

This paper considers the welfare implications of a discriminatory preferential trading arrangement in a general equilibrium model where imports are differentiated by region of origin and terms of trade are fixed. The relationship between the initial (pre-reform) relative volume of trade with the potential partner and welfare changes is theoretically ambiguous. Applied general equilibrium analysis of Egyptian trade illustrates that potential Egyptian welfare gains from a European PTA are modest. Experiments altering the composition of Egyptian trading patterns show that trade creation and diversion are non-monotonic, concave functions of the benchmark share of trade with the PTA partner. Nonetheless, aggregate welfare gains rise with the initial partner trade share. Thus, in the particular case considered here, the more focused Egypt's trade patterns are on the EU, the more the country would gain from a preferential trading arrangement.

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File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/001.pdf
File Function: First version, 2000
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 200001.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200001

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References

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  1. Arvind Panagariya, 1996. "The Free Trade Area of the Americas: Good for Latin America?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 485-515, 09.
  2. Konan, Denise Eby & Maskus, Keith E., 2000. "Joint trade liberalization and tax reform in a small open economy: the case of Egypt," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 365-392, April.
  3. de Melo, Jaime & Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Product differentiation and the treatment of foreign trade in computable general equilibrium models of small economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 47-67, August.
  4. Schiff, Maurice, 1997. "Small is Beautiful: Preferential Trade Agreements and the Impact of Country Size, Market Share, and Smuggling," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 12, pages 359-387.
  5. Rutherford, Thomas F. & Rutstrom, E. Elisabet & Tarr, David, 1997. "Morocco's free trade agreement with the EU: A quantitative assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 237-269, April.
  6. Denise Konan & Keith E. Maskus, 2011. "Preferential Trade And Welfare With Differentiated Products," Working Papers 201101, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  7. Harrison, Glenn W & Rutherford, Thomas F & Wooton, Ian, 1989. "The Economic Impact of the European Community," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 288-94, May.
  8. Bernard Hoekman & Simeon Djankov, 1996. "The European Union's Mediterranean Free Trade Initiative," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 387-405, 07.
  9. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & Ian Wooton, 1993. "An Alternative Welfare Decomposition for Customs Unions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 961-68, November.
  10. Hoekman, Bernard & Konan, Denise, 1999. "Deep Integration, Non-Discrimination and Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2095, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Maskus, Keith E & Konan, Denise Eby, 1997. "Trade Liberalization in Egypt," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(3), pages 275-93, October.
  12. Schiff, Maurice, 1996. "Small is beautiful : preferential trade agreements and the impact of country size, market share, efficiency, and trade policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1668, The World Bank.
  13. Bernard Hoekman & Denise Konan & Keith Maskus, 1998. "An Egypt-U.S. Free Trade Agreement: Economic Incentives and Effects," Working Papers 199802, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  14. repec:fth:coluec:9596-04 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Denise Eby Konan & Keith E Maskus, 1997. "A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Egyptian Trade Liberalization Scenarios," Working Papers 199701, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Bernard Hoekman & Denise Eby Konan, 2005. "Deepening Egypt-US Trade Integration: Economic Implications of Alternative Options," Working Papers 200501, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

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