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Bilateral Trade Patterns and Welfare: An Egypt-EU Preferential Trade Agreement

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Author Info
Denise Eby Konan () (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)
Keith E Maskus

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Abstract

This paper considers the welfare implications of a discriminatory preferential trading arrangement in a general equilibrium model where imports are differentiated by region of origin and terms of trade are fixed. The relationship between the initial (pre-reform) relative volume of trade with the potential partner and welfare changes is theoretically ambiguous. Applied general equilibrium analysis of Egyptian trade illustrates that potential Egyptian welfare gains from a European PTA are modest. Experiments altering the composition of Egyptian trading patterns show that trade creation and diversion are non-monotonic, concave functions of the benchmark share of trade with the PTA partner. Nonetheless, aggregate welfare gains rise with the initial partner trade share. Thus, in the particular case considered here, the more focused Egypt's trade patterns are on the EU, the more the country would gain from a preferential trading arrangement.

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File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/001.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2000
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Paper provided by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 200001.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200001

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rutherford, Thomas F. & Rutstrom, E. Elisabet & Tarr, David, 1997. "Morocco's free trade agreement with the EU: A quantitative assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 237-269, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bhagwati, J. & Panagariya, A., 1996. "Preferential Trading Areas and Multilateralism: Strangers, Friends or Foes?," Discussion Papers 1996_09, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  3. Hoekman, Bernard & Konan, Denise Eby, 1999. "Deep integration, nondiscrimination, and Euro-Mediterranean free trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2130, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Bernard Hoekman & Denise Konan & Keith Maskus, 1998. "An Egypt-U.S. Free Trade Agreement: Economic Incentives and Effects," Working Papers 199802, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & Ian Wooton, 1993. "An Alternative Welfare Decomposition for Customs Unions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 961-68, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Harrison, Glenn W & Rutherford, Thomas F & Wooton, Ian, 1989. "The Economic Impact of the European Community," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 288-94, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Konan, Denise Eby & Maskus, Keith E., 2000. "Joint trade liberalization and tax reform in a small open economy: the case of Egypt," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 365-392, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Denise Eby Konan & Keith E Maskus, 1997. "A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Egyptian Trade Liberalization Scenarios," Working Papers 199701, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Maskus, Keith E & Konan, Denise Eby, 1997. "Trade Liberalization in Egypt," Review of Development Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(3), pages 275-93, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. de Melo, Jaime & Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Product differentiation and the treatment of foreign trade in computable general equilibrium models of small economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 47-67, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Bernard Hoekman & Denise Eby Konan, 2005. "Deepening Egypt-US Trade Integration: Economic Implications of Alternative Options," Working Papers 200501, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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