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Investment Dynamics: Good News Principle

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  • Talat S. Genc

    ()
    (Department of Economics,University of Guelph)

  • Georges Zaccour

    ()
    (GERAD, HEC Montreal.)

Abstract

We study a dynamic Cournot game with capacity accumulation under demand uncertainty, in which the investment is perfectly divisible, irreversible, and productive with a lag. We characterize equilibrium investments under closed-loop and S-adapted open-loop information structures. Contrary to what is established usually in the dynamic games literature with deterministic demand, we find that the firms may invest at a higher level in the open-loop equilibrium (which in some cases coincides with Markov perfect equilibrium) than in the closed-loop Nash equilibrium. The rankings of the investment levels obtained in the two equilibria actually depend on the initial capacities and on the degree of asymmetry between the firms. We also observe, contrary to the bad news principle of investment, that firms may invest more as demand volatility increases and they invest as if high demand (i.e., good news) will unfold in the future.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 1006.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gue:guelph:2010-6.

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Related research

Keywords: Capacity Investment; Dynamic Games; S-adapted Open-Loop Equilibrium; Closed-loop Equilibrium.;

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References

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  1. de Palma, A. & Deneckere, R.J., 1995. "The Diffusion of Consumer Durables in a Vertically Differentiated Oligopoly," Papers 9506, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
  2. Ploeg, F. van der & Zeeuw , A.J. de, 1990. "Perfect equilibrium in a model of competitive arms accumulation," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-377522, Tilburg University.
  3. Ngo Van Long & Koji Shimomura & Harutaka Takahashi, 1999. "Comparing Open-loop With Markov Equilibria in a Class of Differential Games," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 457-469, December.
  4. Cellini, Roberto & Lambertini, Luca, 1998. "A Dynamic Model of Differentiated Oligopoly with Capital Accumulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 145-155, November.
  5. Genc, Talat S. & Sen, Suvrajeet, 2008. "An analysis of capacity and price trajectories for the Ontario electricity market using dynamic Nash equilibrium under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 173-191, January.
  6. Kossioris, G. & Plexousakis, M. & Xepapadeas, A. & Zeeuw, A.J. de & Mäler, K-G., 2008. "Feedback Nash equilibria for non-linear differential games in pollution control," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-378255, Tilburg University.
  7. Michèle Breton & Ramla Jarrar & Georges Zaccour, 2006. "A Note on Feedback Sequential Equilibria in a Lanchester Model with Empirical Application," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(5), pages 804-811, May.
  8. Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda & Jianjun Wu, 2007. "Irreversible investment in stochastically cyclical markets," Economics Working Papers 1018, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  9. Driskill, Robert A. & McCafferty, Stephen, 1989. "Dynamic duopoly with adjustment costs: A differential game approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 324-338, December.
  10. Claudio A. Piga, 1998. "A Dynamic Model of Advertising and Product Differentiation," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 509-522, October.
  11. Driskill, Robert, 2001. "Durable goods oligopoly," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 391-413, March.
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