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Measuring the Returns of Research and Development: An Empirical Study of the German Manufacturing Sector over 45 Years

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Author Info
Guenter Lang () (Faculty of Management Technology, The German University in Cairo)

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Abstract

Motivated by recent statistics that show significant growth in labor productivity, this paper seeks to analyze the relationship between domestic R&D, knowledge stock and productivity dynamics. Time series data of the German manufacturing industry is used to estimate a variable cost function with the stock of knowledge being dependent upon current and past R&D spending. The estimates indicate that 50 percent of the effects of R&D on the knowledge stock appear within four years. However, the rate of return on R&D are shown to be drastically declining; recent rates of return on R&D are estimated to have reached an all-time low spanning the last 45 years. Current yields of R&D are only one third compared to the sixties. In conclusion, though the productivity slowdown of the seventies seems to have been overcome, this is not attributed to R&D investments.

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File URL: http://mgt.guc.edu.eg/wpapers/010lang2008.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2008
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by The German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology in its series Working Papers with number 10.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:guc:wpaper:10

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Web page: http://mgt.guc.edu.eg/economics/RePEc/guc/
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Related research
Keywords: Productivity; innovation; research; development; technology; productivity slowdown;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Capital and Total Factor Productivity; Capacity
L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
O31 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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  1. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Mairesse, Jacques, 1995. "Exploring the relationship between R&D and productivity in French manufacturing firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 263-293, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Blind, Knut & Grupp, Hariolf, 1999. "Interdependencies between the science and technology infrastructure and innovation activities in German regions: empirical findings and policy consequences," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 451-468, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Beise, Marian & Stahl, Harald, 1999. "Public research and industrial innovations in Germany," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 397-422, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Popp, David C., 2001. "The effect of new technology on energy consumption," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 215-239, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Wakelin, Katharine, 2001. "Productivity growth and R&D expenditure in UK manufacturing firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1079-1090, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. William D. Nordhaus, 2000. "Productivity Growth and the New Economy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1284, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Catherine J. Morrison, 1989. "Unraveling the Productivity Growth Slowdown in the U.S., Canada and Japan: The Effects of Subequilibrium, Scale Economies and Markup," NBER Working Papers 2993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Flaig, Gebhard & Steiner, Viktor, 1993. "Searching for the "Productivity Slowdown": Some Surprising Findings from West German Manufacturing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 57-65, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Zvi Griliches, 1979. "Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Growth," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 92-116, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Gebhardt Flaig & Horst Rottmann, 2001. "Input Demand and the Short- and Long-Run Employment Thresholds: An Empirical Analysis for the German Manufacturing Sector," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 367-384, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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