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Global Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of U.S. Maize Ethanol: The Role of Market-Mediated Responses

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  • Hertel, Thomas
  • Golub, Alla
  • Jones, Andrew
  • O'Hare, Michael
  • Plevin, Richard
  • Kammen, Daniel

Abstract

With the recent adoption by the California Air Resources Board of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and USEPA’s Energy Independence and Security Act, greenhouse gas releases from indirect land use change triggered by crop-based biofuels have taken center stage in the debate over the role of biofuels in climate policy and energy security. This paper presents an analysis of these releases for US maize ethanol. Our analysis highlights the key role of market-mediated responses to biofuels mandates. Factoring these into our analysis reduces cropland conversion by 72%. As a consequence the associated GHG release estimated in our framework is just 800 g CO2 MJ -1y (27 g MJ-1 for 30 years of ethanol production). This figure is a quarter of the one previously published value. However, it is still large enough to eliminate the global warming mitigation benefits of most corn ethanol.

Suggested Citation

  • Hertel, Thomas & Golub, Alla & Jones, Andrew & O'Hare, Michael & Plevin, Richard & Kammen, Daniel, 2009. "Global Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of U.S. Maize Ethanol: The Role of Market-Mediated Responses," GTAP Working Papers 3160, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    • Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:3160
    Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 55
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    File URL: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=3160
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    Cited by:

    1. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    2. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    3. Haqiqi, Iman & Manzoor, Davood, 2012. "Environmental Impacts of Phasing out Energy Subsidies," MPRA Paper 95688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    4. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    5. Alice Favero & Robert Mendelsohn & Brent Sohngen, 2017. "Using forests for climate mitigation: sequester carbon or produce woody biomass?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 195-206, September.
    6. Favero, Alice & Mendelsohn, Robert & Sohngen, Brent, 2016. "Carbon Storage and Bioenergy: Using Forests for Climate Mitigation," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 232215, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Yang, Anton, 2016. "Ecological Balance Determined by Human Choice: How does forestland change with consumer preferences for GM soybeans?," Conference papers 332789, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Felix Creutzig & Christoph von Stechow & David Klein & Carol Hunsberger & Nico Bauer & Alexander Popp & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2012. "Can Bioenergy Assessments Deliver?," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    9. Frank van Tongeren & Robert Koopman & Stephen Karingi & John Reilly & Joseph Francois, 2021. "Back to the Future: A 25-Year Retrospective on GTAP and the Shaping of a New Agenda," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 3, pages 41-93, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Creutzig, Felix & McGlynn, Emily & Minx, Jan & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2011. "Climate policies for road transport revisited (I): Evaluation of the current framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2396-2406, May.
    11. Winden, Matthew & Cruze, Nathan & Haab, Tim & Bakshi, Bhavik, 2014. "Integrating life-cycle assessment and choice analysis for alternative fuel valuation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 83-93.
    12. Bruce A. Babcock & Zabid Iqbal, 2014. "Using Recent Land Use Changes to Validate Land Use Change Models," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 14-sr109, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    13. Rajagopal, D. & Hochman, G. & Zilberman, D., 2011. "Indirect fuel use change (IFUC) and the lifecycle environmental impact of biofuel policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 228-233, January.
    14. Dandres, Thomas & Gaudreault, Caroline & Seco, Pablo Tirado & Samson, Réjean, 2014. "Uncertainty management in a macro life cycle assessment of a 2005–2025 European bioenergy policy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 52-61.
    15. Sexton, Steven & Eyer, Jonathan, 2016. "Leveling the playing field of transportation fuels: Accounting for indirect emissions of natural gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 21-31.
    16. Fischer, Justina A.V., 2012. "The choice of domestic policies in a globalized economy: Extended Version," MPRA Paper 37816, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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