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Reconciling Bilateral Trade Data for Use in GTAP

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  • Gehlhar, Mark
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    Abstract

    Bilateral trade flows are reported by both importers and exporters. Large discrepancies in reported import/export trade flows can be found when these two reports are compared. The GTAP Data Base requires consistency between the export flow and its corresponding import flow for all partner pairs. Therefore, bilateral trade data in its reported form cannot be directly used for GTAP. Various methods can be used to produce a consistent set of bilateral trade flows. However, achieving consistency alone does not necessarily provide credible trade flows. Matrix balancing using trade totals published by international agencies is not appropriate since these totals are not reconciled but are simply totals from country-reported flows. A method is developed with the aim of extracting the most reliable reported trade flows from reported import and export flows. Specific examples are used to illustrate how discrepancies can result from reporting errors and transport margins. Evidence is shown indicating that discrepancies often arise from erroneous reporting by one of the partners. Systematic reporting errors associated with a reporter can be measured by the share of consistent transactions with partners. The most reliable reported flows are selected based on credibility of reporters. The source of international bilateral trade for GTAP is United Nations COMTRADE database. It contains the complete set of countries in the world and the set of commodities covering total merchandise trade. Since errors in reporting are country-commodity specific, data is processed at the individual country and SITC 4-digit level before aggregating to the 30-region 31- merchandise trade commodity database in version 3 of the GTAP Data Base.

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    File URL: http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=313
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University in its series GTAP Technical Papers with number 313.

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    Date of creation: 1996
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    Handle: RePEc:gta:techpp:313

    Note: GTAP Technical Paper No. 10
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    Cited by:
    1. Elisabeth Christen & Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2012. "CGE modeling of market access in services," Working Papers 2012-13, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    2. Christophe Gouel & Houssein Guimbard & David Laborde, 2012. "A Foreign Direct Investment database for global CGE models," Working Papers 2012-08, CEPII research center.
    3. Han, Yijun & Hertel, Thomas W., 2003. "The Puzzling State of China's Meat Trade," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 18(2).
    4. Nico van Leeuwen & Arjan Lejour, 2006. "Bilateral Services Trade Data and the GTAP database," CPB Memorandum 160, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Ferrantino, Michael J. & Liu, Xuepeng & Wang, Zhi, 2012. "Evasion behaviors of exporters and importers: Evidence from the U.S.–China trade data discrepancy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 141-157.
    6. Zhi Wang & Mark Gehlhar & Shunli Yao, 2007. "A Globally Consistent Framework for Reliability-based Trade Statistics Reconciliation in the Presence of an Entrepôt," Trade Working Papers 22715, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    7. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00866558 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ferrantino, Michael J. & Wang, Zhi, 2008. "Accounting for discrepancies in bilateral trade: The case of China, Hong Kong, and the United States," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 502-520, September.
    9. repec:hal:ciredw:hal-00866558 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Arie ten Cate, 2014. "The Identification of Reporting Accuracies from Mirror Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 234(1), pages 70-84, January.
    11. Bas Straathof & Gert Jan Linders & Arjan Lejour & Jan Möhlmann, 2008. "The internal market and the Dutch economy: implications for trade and economic growth," CPB Document 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Arie ten Cate, 2007. "Modelling the reporting discrepancies in bilateral data," CPB Memorandum 179, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Wang, Zhi & Gehlhar, Mark & Yao, Shunli, 2010. "A globally consistent framework for reliability-based trade statistics reconciliation in the presence of an entrepôt," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 161-189, March.
    14. Christen, Elisabeth & Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard, 2013. "Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Market Access in Services," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
    15. Arjan Lejour & Nico van Leeuwen & Arie ten Cate, 2008. "The quality of bilateral services trade data: contribution to GTAP7 database," CPB Memorandum 212, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Kastner, Thomas & Kastner, Michael & Nonhebel, Sanderine, 2011. "Tracing distant environmental impacts of agricultural products from a consumer perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(6), pages 1032-1040, April.

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