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Surrounded by wars: Quantifying the role of spatial conflict spillovers

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  • Fabrizio Carmignani
  • Parvinder Kler

Abstract

We apply panel estimation methods to test how the incidence of war in neighbourhood countries affects the incidence of war in the domestic country. This study finds positive and significant evidence of “spatial conflict spillover”: higher incidence in the neighbourhood increases domestic country involvement in war. We also provide some new evidence on other correlates of war. Particularly interesting are the results concerning the effect of democracy. An increase in the level of democracy increases the incidence of interstate war and reduces the incidence of civil war. However, this latter effect kicks in only past a certain initial level of democracy.
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  • Fabrizio Carmignani & Parvinder Kler, 2013. "Surrounded by wars: Quantifying the role of spatial conflict spillovers," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201303, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:gri:epaper:economics:201303
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Duque & Michael Jetter & Santiago Sosa, 2015. "UN interventions: The role of geography," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 67-95, March.
    2. Attila, Joseph G., 2022. "Does bank deposits volatility react to political instability in developing countries?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Kamin, Katrin, 2022. "Bilateral trade and conflict heterogeneity: The impact of conflict on trade revisited," Kiel Working Papers 2222, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Muriuki, James & Hudson, Darren & Fuad, Syed & March, Raymond J. & Lacombe, Donald J., 2023. "Spillover effect of violent conflicts on food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Civil war; interstate war; neighbourhood effect; spillover; panel models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative

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