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Prévisions de résultat et réactions : étude de deux sous- réactions sous l’angle du biais d’ancrage

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Kaestner, Michael

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Abstract

Les travaux en finance comportementale tentent, depuis quelques années, d\'expliquer certaines des anomalies constatées, en abandonnant l\'idée de rationalité de l\'investisseur, pourtant centrale à l\'hypothèse d\'efficience des marchés. Cette étude, menée sur les entreprises américaines cotées sur la période 1983-1999, vise à montrer qu\'à la fois la analystes financiers et les investisseurs sont victimes du biais d\'ancrage. Ce biais conduit à une prise en compte insuffisante de l\'information nouvelle au détriment de l\'information passée. Les résultats confirment dans un premier temps que les analystes sont victimes d\'un biais d\'ancrage aux bénéfices précédents. Dans un second temps, nous avons pu établir que les investisseurs ne parviennent pas à corriger ces erreurs de prévision mais se fondent sur des anticipations encore plus conservatrices. A l\'instar des analystes financiers, cette attitude conservatrice est fonction des bénéfices antérieurs, ce qui indique également l\'existence d\'un biais d\'ancrage.

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Paper provided by Montpellier University, Center for Research in Finance in its series Working Paper Series with number 2005-4.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 03 Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:grf:mtpwps:mk005

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