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Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects of Devaluation in a Dollarized Economy: A CGE Analysis for Bolivia

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Author Info
Rainer Schweickert () (IFW, Kiel)
Rainer Thiele () (IFW, Kiel)
Manfred Wiebelt () (IFW, Kiel)

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Abstract

In this paper, a real-financial CGE model is employed for Bolivia to simulate the macroeconomic and distributional effects of exchange rate policy in a highly dollarized economy. Overall, dollarization appears to matter more through real than through financial-sector effects. The main macroeconomic result of the simulations is that the potential of nominal devaluation to smooth the adjustment path after a negative shock primarily depends on the absence of wage indexation. Only if nominal wages are constant in the short run, devaluation reduces unemployment and cushions the reduction of real GDP induced by the shock. Financial de-dollarization tends to be contractionary in Bolivia but different degrees of financial dollarization hardly change the real sector effects. As concerns distributional effects, nominal devaluation in no circumstance reduces the poverty effect of the external shock. Even the significant short-run macroeconomic expansion that occurs without wage indexation does not translate into significant poverty alleviation, given the offsetting effects of devaluation on real factor incomes, real interest incomes, and real transfers received by households.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research in its series Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers with number 120.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 21 Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:got:iaidps:120

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Related research
Keywords: Dollarization; Poverty; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Bolivia;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Rainer Thiele & Daniel Piazolo, 2003. "A Social Accounting Matrix for Bolivia Featuring Formal and Informal Activities," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 285-318. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2006. "On the Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Paper Series rwp06-047, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Gianni De Nicoló & Alain Ize & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Dollarization of the Banking System: Good or Bad?," IMF Working Papers 03/146, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Stephan Klasen & Melanie Grosse & Rainer Thiele & Jann Lay & Julius Spatz & Manfred Wiebelt, 2004. "Operationalizing Pro-Poor Growth - Country Case Study: Bolivia," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 101, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Fofack, Hippolyte, 2003. "The integrated macroeconomic model for poverty analysis : a quantitative macroeconomic framework for the analysis of poverty reduction strategies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3092, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jann Lay & Rainer Thiele & Manfred Wiebelt, 2004. "Pro-poor Growth in Bolivia: Accounting for External Shocks and Policy Reforms," Kiel Working Papers 1231, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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