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Determinants of the duration and ending of terrorist and other non-state armed groups

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  • Dominik Noe

    (Georg-August-University Göttingen)

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    Abstract

    This study empirically investigates the impact of group characteristics and host country conditions on the duration and the ending of terrorist organizations and rebel groups. The empirical analysis relies on data for more than 600 armed groups from the Terrorist Organization Profiles, collected by the MIPT, and employs discrete time duration models with unobserved heterogeneity and its application to a setting with competing risks. It is found that organizations stabilize over time and face the highest risk of failure at the beginning. Factors that motivate members play an important role, as does support from other countries. Rich states are more likely to defeat armed groups and there is no evidence found that a restriction of civil rights decreases the duration of armed groups or increases the likelihood of capturing them.

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    File URL: http://www2.vwl.wiso.uni-goettingen.de/courant-papers/CRC-PEG_DP_140.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Courant Research Centre PEG in its series Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers with number 140.

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    Date of creation: 09 Jul 2013
    Date of revision: 19 Sep 2013
    Handle: RePEc:got:gotcrc:140

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    Phone: +49 551 39 14066
    Fax: + 49 551 39 14059
    Web page: http://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/82144.html

    Related research

    Keywords: Terrorist organizations; Insurgency; Duration analysis; Discrete time duration model; Competing risk regression; Civil war;

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    1. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2004. "Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars," Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra 770, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2005.
    2. Bruno S. Frey & Dominic Rohner, 2006. "Blood and Ink! The Common-Interest-Game Between Terrorists and the Media," CREMA Working Paper Series, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA) 2006-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    3. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2000. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2355, The World Bank.
    4. Bruce D. Meyer, 1988. "Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells," NBER Working Papers 2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jos� G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2005. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 796-816, June.
    6. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Indicators 2012," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6014, August.
    7. S. Brock Blomberg & Rozlyn C. Engel & Reid Sawyer, 2010. "On the Duration and Sustainability of Transnational Terrorist Organizations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(2), pages 303-330, April.
    8. Martin Gassebner & Simon Luechinger, 2011. "Lock, stock, and barrel: a comprehensive assessment of the determinants of terror," Public Choice, Springer, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 235-261, December.
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