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The Impact of the Multifiber Agreement Phaseout on Unemployment in Tunisia: a Prospective Dynamic Analysis

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Author Info
Mohamed A. Marouani ()

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Abstract

Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the paper provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of the Multifiber Agreement dismantling on unemployment in Tunisia. The specification of intertemporal behavior of households and firms permits the analysis of the effects of the shock on consumption and investment in the long run. By including a multisectoral model of efficiency wages, the model allows for an endogenous determination of unemployment. The main findings are that unemployment and wage inequality will increase due to the MFA phase out, and that a deeper integration with the EU can soften the negative effects of the shock.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, University of Goettingen (Germany). in its series cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers with number 39.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: 19 Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:got:cegedp:39

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Web page: http://www.cege.uni-goettingen.de
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Related research
Keywords: Unemployment; dynamic general equilibrium model; efficiency wages; multifiber agreement; Tunisia;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing
F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts

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  1. Akerlof, George A, 1982. "Labor Contracts as Partial Gift Exchange," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(4), pages 543-69, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mohamed Ali Marouani, 2004. "Effets de l’Accord d’association avec l’Union européenne et du démantèlement de l’Accord Multifibres sur l’emploi en Tunisie : Une analyse en équilibre général intertemporel," Working Papers DT/2004/01, DIAL (Développement, Institutions & Analyses de Long terme). [Downloadable!]
  3. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Diao, X. & Roe, T.L. & Yeldan, A.E., 1998. "How Fiscal (Mis)-Management May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From an Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model for Turkey," Bulletins 7459, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  7. François Bourguignon & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality," Working Papers DT/2003/10, DIAL (Développement, Institutions & Analyses de Long terme). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Wendner, Ronald, 1999. "A Calibration Procedure of Dynamic CGE Models for Non-steady State Situations Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 265-87, June. [Downloadable!]
  9. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S., 1998. "The Simplest Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of an Open Economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 677-714, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  11. Daniel S. Hamermesh & Gerard A. Pfann, 1996. "Adjustment Costs in Factor Demand," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1264-1292, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Dissou, Yazid, 2002. "Dynamic Effects in Senegal of the Regional Trade Agreement among UEMOA Countries," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 177-99, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jeremy I. Bulow & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "A Theory of Dual Labor Markets with Application to Industrial Policy, Discrimination and Keynesian Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 1666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Walsh, Frank, 1999. "A Multisector Model of Efficiency Wages," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 351-76, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Michel Fouquin & Pascal Morand & Richard Avisse & Gildas Minvielle & Philippe Dumont, 2002. "Mondialisation et regionalisation : le cas des industries du textile et de l'habillement," Working Papers 2002-08, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  16. Go, Delfin S., 1994. "External shocks, adjustment policies and investment in a developing economy: Illustrations from a forward-looking CGE model of the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 229-261, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-industry Effects," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 253-80, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Arne Bigsten, 1999. "Adjustment Costs, Irreversibility, and Investment Patterns in African Manufacturing," IMF Working Papers 99/99, International Monetary Fund.
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