Does Voter Turnout Affect the Votes for the Incumbent Government?
AbstractThis paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period 1979-2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that right-wing governments have lower vote shares when turnout is higher, while left-wing ones seem to be unaffected. There is also evidence of the responsibility hypothesis, that turnout is higher in closer elections, and that regional/local economic variables have non-linear effects on turnout.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra in its series GEMF Working Papers with number 2013-20.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Vote Shares; Turnout; Legislative Elections; Portugal.;
Other versions of this item:
- Rodrigo Martins & Francisco JosÃ© Veiga, 2013. "Does voter turnout affect the votes for the incumbent government?," NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho 15/2013, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-09-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2013-09-25 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-LAM-2013-09-25 (Central & South America)
- NEP-LTV-2013-09-25 (Unemployment, Inequality & Poverty)
- NEP-NEU-2013-09-25 (Neuroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2013-09-25 (Public Economics)
- NEP-POL-2013-09-25 (Positive Political Economics)
- NEP-URE-2013-09-25 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- Linda GonÃ§alves Veiga & Francisco JosÃ© Veiga, 2006.
"The impact of local and national economic conditions on legislative election results,"
NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho
6/2006, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Francisco Jose Veiga & Linda Goncalves Veiga, 2010. "The impact of local and national economic conditions on legislative election results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(13), pages 1727-1734.
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