Does Voter Turnout Affect the Votes for the Incumbent Government?
AbstractThis paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period 1979-2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that right-wing governments have lower vote shares when turnout is higher, while left-wing ones seem to be unaffected. There is also evidence of the responsibility hypothesis, that turnout is higher in closer elections, and that regional/local economic variables have non-linear effects on turnout.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra in its series GEMF Working Papers with number 2013-20.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Vote Shares; Turnout; Legislative Elections; Portugal.;
Other versions of this item:
- Rodrigo Martins & Francisco José Veiga, 2013. "Does voter turnout affect the votes for the incumbent government?," NIPE Working Papers 15/2013, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-09-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2013-09-25 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-LAM-2013-09-25 (Central & South America)
- NEP-LTV-2013-09-25 (Unemployment, Inequality & Poverty)
- NEP-NEU-2013-09-25 (Neuroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2013-09-25 (Public Economics)
- NEP-POL-2013-09-25 (Positive Political Economics)
- NEP-URE-2013-09-25 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francisco Jose Veiga & Linda Goncalves Veiga, 2010.
"The impact of local and national economic conditions on legislative election results,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(13), pages 1727-1734.
- Linda Gonçalves Veiga & Francisco José Veiga, 2006. "The impact of local and national economic conditions on legislative election results," NIPE Working Papers 6/2006, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135.
- Hortala-Vallve, Rafael & Esteve-Volart, Berta, 2011. "Voter turnout and electoral competition in a multidimensional policy space," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 376-384, June.
- Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. " The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-45, June.
- Grofman, Bernard & Owen, Guillermo & Collet, Christian, 1999. " Rethinking the Partisan Effects of Higher Turnout: So What's the Question?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(3-4), pages 357-76, June.
- Hillman, Arye L., 2010. "Expressive behavior in economics and politics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 403-418, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sara Santos).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.