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Macroeconomic Factors of Household Default. Is There Myopic Behaviour?

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  • Rui Pascoal

    (Faculty of Economics University of Coimbra)

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    Abstract

    The purpose of this paper is to study the family financial distress in Portugal, using quarterly observations, in a period from 2002 to 2010, by analysing the macroeconomic determinants of the Household Default rate, for which we take a logit transformation. Ordinary least squares are used. The default determinants considered are Euribor rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (gdpgr) and unemployment rate. The distinctive feature of this paper is the decomposition of gdpgr in a short term and a long term components and the substitution of gdpgr for its long term component as a regressor which improves the adjustment of the regression. The signs of the coefficients are the ones expected according to economic theory, except for Euribor rate, which may be due to its pro-cyclical behaviour with respect to economic activity. Taking into account the distinct characterization with respect to stationarity of the different variables, the estimation of the relation between household default rate and its factors has to be done in two stages: first a regression on the integrated variables, and then a regression of the residuals of the first regression on the stationary variables. It is detected a more pronounced effect of the long term component of gdpgr and a perverse influence (although it may be spurious) of the short term component of gdpgr on default, which, jointly, suggests the existence of myopic behaviour by the families. It is analysed the joint evolution of these variables to detect possible interactions between them. Namely, the paradoxical role of Euribor rate is explained by its correlation with the other regressors.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra in its series GEMF Working Papers with number 2012-20.

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    Length: 16 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2012-20

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    Keywords: Household default; spectral analysis; logit regression; cointegration.;

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    1. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Juri Marcucci & Mario Quagliariello, . "Is Bank Portfolio Riskiness Procyclical? Evidence from Italy using a Vector Autoregression," Discussion Papers 05/09, Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. Becker, G.S., 1991. "Habits, Addictions, and Traditions," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 91-8, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
    4. Belbute, José & Caleiro, António, 2009. "Measuring the Persistence on Consumption in Portugal," MPRA Paper 15116, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Goodman, Allen C. & Smith, Brent C., 2010. "Residential mortgage default: Theory works and so does policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 280-294, December.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    8. Tan, Hui Boon & Ashley, Richard, 1999. "Detection And Modeling Of Regression Parameter Variation Across Frequencies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(01), pages 69-83, March.
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