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Growth and Output Fluctuations

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  • Chol-Won Li

Abstract

Output fluctuations are driven by expectations about the degree of competition in the product market (and R&D sector). We examine how the characteristics of endogenous cycles change in the long run, as labour productivity grows faster. Main results: (i) expansion (or contraction) occurs more (or less) frequently, (ii) expansion becomes milder but contraction severer, (iii) the amplitude of fluctuations becomes larger, (iv) the variance of output changes ambiguously, indicating a non-linear relation. Once the growth of labour productivity is endogenised with learning-by- doing, it grows faster in contraction if the strength of inter-industry learning spillovers is relatively weak.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 9810.

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Date of creation: Oct 1998
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:9810

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Keywords: expectations; fluctuations; growth; learning-by-doing; innovations;

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Cited by:
  1. Patricia Crifo-Tillet & Etienne Lehmann, 2004. "Why Will Technical Change Not Be Permanently Skill-Biased?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(1), pages 157-180, January.
  2. Patricia CRIFO-TILLET & Etienne LEHMANN, 2001. "Why the Kuznets Curve will always Reverse ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2001036, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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