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Growth and Output Fluctuations

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Author Info
Chol-Won Li

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Abstract

Output fluctuations are driven by expectations about the degree of competition in the product market (and R&D sector). We examine how the characteristics of endogenous cycles change in the long run, as labour productivity grows faster. Main results: (i) expansion (or contraction) occurs more (or less) frequently, (ii) expansion becomes milder but contraction severer, (iii) the amplitude of fluctuations becomes larger, (iv) the variance of output changes ambiguously, indicating a non-linear relation. Once the growth of labour productivity is endogenised with learning-by- doing, it grows faster in contraction if the strength of inter-industry learning spillovers is relatively weak.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 9810.

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Date of creation: Oct 1998
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:9810

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Related research
Keywords: expectations; fluctuations; growth; learning-by-doing; innovations;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
O30 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - General
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Corriveau, Louis, 1994. "Entrepreneurs, Growth and Cycles," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(241), pages 1-15, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1997. "Business Cycles and Long-Run Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 145-53, Autumn.
    Other versions:
  3. Amable, Bruno, 1995. "Endogenous growth and cycles through radical and incremental innovation," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9504, CEPREMAP.
  4. David Andolfatto & Glenn M. MacDonald, 1998. "Technology Diffusion and Aggregate Dynamics," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 58, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Cohen, Wesley M & Levinthal, Daniel A, 1989. "Innovation and Learning: The Two Faces of R&D," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 569-96, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, . "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Matter?," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _130, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Stadler, George W, 1990. "Business Cycle Models with Endogenous Technology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 763-78, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Chol-Won Li, . "Science, Diminishing Returns and Long Waves," Working Papers 9715, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Baumol, William J & Benhabib, Jess, 1989. "Chaos: Significance, Mechanism, and Economic Applications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 77-105, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Malley, Jim & Muscatelli, V. Anton, 1999. "Business cycles and productivity growth: Are temporary downturns productive or wasteful?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 337-364, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Aghion, P. & Saint-Paul, G., 1991. "On The Virtue of Bad Times: An Analysis of the Interaction Between Economic Fluctuations and Productivity Growth," DELTA Working Papers 91-23, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
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  12. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 224-36, April.
  13. Kontolemis, Zenon G, 1997. "Does Growth Vary over the Business Cycle? Some Evidence from the G7 Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(255), pages 441-60, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-51, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Van Ewijk, Casper, 1997. "Entry and Exit, Cycles, and Productivity Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 167-87, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-68, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Jeffrey R. Campbell, 1997. "Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Patricia CRIFO-TILLET & Etienne LEHMANN, 2001. "Why the Kuznets Curve will always Reverse ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2001036, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
  2. Patricia Crifo-Tillet & Etienne Lehmann, 2004. "Why Will Technical Change Not Be Permanently Skill-Biased?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(1), pages 157-180, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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