Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Does Uranium Mining Increase Civil Conflict Risk? Evidence from a Spatiotemporal Analysis of Africa from 1945 to 2010

Contents:

Author Info

  • Carlo Koos

    ()
    (GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies)

  • Matthias Basedau

    ()
    (GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We employ a two-tier spatiotemporal analysis to investigate whether uranium operations cause armed conflict in Africa. The macrolevel analysis suggests that . compared to the baseline conflict risk . uranium ventures increase the risk of intrastate conflict by 10 percent. However, we find ethnic exclusion to be a much better predictor of armed conflict than uranium. The microlevel analysis reveals that uranium]spurred conflicts are spatiotemporally feasible in four countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Namibia, Niger and South Africa. We find strong evidence in the case of Niger, and partial evidence in the case of the DRC. Namibia and South Africa do not yield substantial evidence of uranium-induced conflicts. We conclude that uranium may theoretically be a conflictinducing resource, but to the present day empirical evidence has been sparse as most countries are still in the exploration phase. Considering that the coming years will see 25 African countries transition from uranium explorers into producers, we strongly suggest that our analysis be revisited in the coming years.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.giga-hamburg.de/dl/download.php?d=/content/publikationen/pdf/wp205_koos-basedau.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies in its series GIGA Working Paper Series with number 205.

    as in new window
    Length: 36 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:gig:wpaper:205

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Neuer Jungfernstieg 21, D-20354 Hamburg
    Phone: +49 (0)40 42825-593
    Fax: +49 (0)40 42825-547
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.giga-hamburg.de/workingpapers
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Email:

    Related research

    Keywords: civil war; uranium; ethnicity; GIS; subnational study;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gig:wpaper:205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bert Hoffmann).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.