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Is Entrepreneurial Success Predictable? An Ex-Ante Analysis of the Character-Based Approach

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Author Info

  • Marco Caliendo

    (DIW Berlin)

  • Alexander S. Kritikos

    (University Viadrina)

Abstract

This paper empirically analyses whether the character-based approach which is based on the personality and on the human capital of business founders, al- lows prediction of entrepreneurial success. A unique data set is used consisting of 414 previously unemployed persons whose personal characteristics were screened by different methods, namely a one-day assessment center (AC) and a standardized questionnaire, before they launched their business. Results are partly unexpected: First, there is almost no correlation between the AC data and the questionnaire. Second, the predictive power of the AC data is slightly better than the one of the questionnaire but lower than expected in theory. Interestingly, for those subgroups where the AC data have low predictive power, the questionnaire does better. Third, when success is measured in terms of hired employees both methods are poor pre- dictors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Gesellschaft für Arbeitsmarktaktivierung (GfA) in its series Working Papers with number 0001.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gfa:wpaper:0001

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Related research

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Psychological Assessment; Character-Based Approach; Success Prediction;

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References

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  1. Caliendo, Marco & Fossen, Frank M. & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2006. "Risk Attitudes of Nascent Entrepreneurs: New Evidence from an Experimentally-Validated Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 2168, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Dunn, Thomas & Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 2000. "Financial Capital, Human Capital, and the Transition to Self-Employment: Evidence from Intergenerational Links," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(2), pages 282-305, April.
  3. Bianchi, Milo & Henrekson, Magnus, 2005. "Is Neoclassical Economics still Entrepreneurless?," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 584, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 02 Feb 2005.
  4. Evans, David S & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989. "An Estimated Model of Entrepreneurial Choice under Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 808-27, August.
  5. Bonnett, Celia & Furnham, Adrian, 1991. "Who wants to be an entrepreneur? A study of adolescents interested in a Young Enterprise scheme," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 465-478, September.
  6. Brandstatter, Hermann, 1997. "Becoming an entrepreneur -- A question of personality structure?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 157-177, April.
  7. J. Wagner, 2003. "Testing Lazear's jack-of-all-trades view of entrepreneurship with German micro data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 687-689.
  8. Kihlstrom, Richard E & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1979. "A General Equilibrium Entrepreneurial Theory of Firm Formation Based on Risk Aversion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 719-48, August.
  9. Caliendo, Marco & Kritikos, Alexander S. & Wießner, Frank, 2006. "Existenzgründungsförderung in Deutschland: Zwischenergebnisse aus der Hartz-Evaluation," Discussion Papers 253, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  10. Edward P. Lazear, 2004. "Balanced Skills and Entrepreneurship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 208-211, May.
  11. repec:att:wimass:8827 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Blanchflower, D.G. & Oswald, A., 1991. "What Makes an Entrepreneur?," Economics Series Working Papers 99125, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  13. Hartog, Joop & Ferrer-i-Carbonell, Ada & Jonker, Nicole, 2002. "Linking Measured Risk Aversion to Individual Characteristics," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 3-26.
  14. Holmes, Thomas J & Schmitz, James A, Jr, 1990. "A Theory of Entrepreneurship and Its Application to the Study of Business Transfers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(2), pages 265-94, April.
  15. Begley, Thomas M. & Boyd, David P., 1987. "Psychological characteristics associated with performence in entrepreneurial firms and smaller businesses," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 79-93.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Marco Caliendo & Frank Fossen & Alexander Kritikos, 2014. "Personality characteristics and the decisions to become and stay self-employed," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 787-814, April.
  2. Joyce Koe Hwee Nga & Gomathi Shamuganathan, 2010. "The Influence of Personality Traits and Demographic Factors on Social Entrepreneurship Start Up Intentions," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 95(2), pages 259-282, August.
  3. Caliendo, Marco & Fossen, Frank & Kritikos, Alexander, 2012. "Trust, positive reciprocity, and negative reciprocity: Do these traits impact entrepreneurial dynamics?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 394-409.
  4. Willebrands, Daan & Lammers, Judith & Hartog, Joop, 2012. "A successful businessman is not a gambler. Risk attitude and business performance among small enterprises in Nigeria," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 342-354.
  5. Joanna Tyrowicz & Joanna Nestorowicz, 2010. "Cynicism Starts Young: Age and Entrepreneurship over Transition," Working Papers 2010-02, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  6. Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2011. "What distinguishes entrepreneurs? Evidence on the motives for self-employment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 226-229, September.
  7. Simoes, Nadia & Moreira, Sandrina B. & Crespo, Nuno, 2013. "Individual Determinants of Self-Employment Entry – What Do We Really Know?," MPRA Paper 48403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Man Zhang & Patriya Tansuhaj & James McCullough, 2009. "International entrepreneurial capability: The measurement and a comparison between born global firms and traditional exporters in China," Journal of International Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 292-322, December.
  9. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00467900 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Rotger, Gabriel Pons & Gørtz, Mette & Storey, David J., 2012. "Assessing the effectiveness of guided preparation for new venture creation and performance: Theory and practice," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 506-521.

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