Estimation and Testing for the Cointegration Rank in a Threshold Cointegrated System
AbstractThe paper generalises estimation and inference procedures for a threshold VECM with more than one cointegrating relation. We derive estimators of long-run parameters and loading factors by means of a reduced rank regression. We provide their asymptotic distributions and propose a testing procedure for the cointegrating rank. The asymptotic distributions of our test statistics are derived and tabulated. In order to improve finite sample inference, we also compute bootstrap approximation to the distribution of our test statistics. Monte-Carlo experiments are conducted to evaluate the finite-sample performance of our test and its power. We apply our methodology to the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of U.S. interest rates.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève in its series Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva with number 2009.01.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 40 Boulevard du Pont-d'Arve, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland
Phone: +41 22 379 8263
Fax: +41 22 379 82 93
Web page: http://www.unige.ch/gsem/dsec/index.html
Threshold cointegration; reduced rank estimator; TUR models; cointegration rank test; term structure of interest rates;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Camacho, Maximo, 2005. "Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 135-158, January.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986.
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models,"
NBER Working Papers
1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- H. Lütkepohl & P. Saikkonen, 1997.
"Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with a Time Trend,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1997,79, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a time trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 177-198, March.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1998.
"Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with an intercept,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1998,51, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process With An Intercept," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 373-406, June.
- Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2006. "Testing For Cointegration In Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 279-303, April.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988.
"Interpreting Cointegrated Models,"
NBER Working Papers
2568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Seo, Myunghwan, 2006. "Bootstrap testing for the null of no cointegration in a threshold vector error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 129-150, September.
- Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February.
- Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002.
"Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen/Seo paper on threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gotz, Linde & Qiu, Feng & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "The Law of One Price under State-Dependent Policy Intervention: An Application to the Ukrainian Wheat Market," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124904, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Götz, Linde & Qiu, Feng & Gervais, Jean-Philippe & Glauben, Thomas, 2013. "Export Restrictions and Multiple Spatial Price Equilibria: Export Quotas for Wheat in Ukraine," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156135, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
- Makram El-Shagi, 2011.
"An evolutionary algorithm for the estimation of threshold vector error correction models,"
International Economics and Economic Policy,
Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 341-362, December.
- Makram El-Shagi, 2010. "An Evolutionary Algorithm for the Estimation of Threshold Vector Error Correction Models," IWH Discussion Papers 1, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
- Jaya Krishnakumar & David Neto, 2009. "Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and Term Structure using Three-Regime Threshold Unit Root VECM," Research Papers by the Department of Economics, University of Geneva 2009.06, Département des Sciences Économiques, Université de Genève.
- Gotz, Linde & Qiu, Feng & Gervais, Jean-Philippe & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "Export Restrictions And Multiple Spatial Price Equilibria When International Prices Spike: Export Quotas For Wheat In Ukraine," 2012: New Rules of Trade?, December 2012, San Diego, California 143179, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.