Accurate and robust indirect inference for diffusion models
AbstractIndirect inference (Smith, 1993; Gouriéroux, Monfort and Renault, 1993) is a simulation-based estimation method dealing with econometric models whose likelihood function is intractable. Typical examples are diffusion models described by stochastic differential equations. A potential problem that arises when estimating a diffusion model is the possible model misspecifcation which can lead to biased estimators and misleading test results. To correct the bias due to model misspecifcation, Genton and Ronchetti (2003) proposed robust indirect inference. The standard asymptotic approximation to the finite sample distribution of the robust indirect estimators and tests, however, can be very poor and can lead to misleading inference. To improve the finite sample accuracy, we propose in this paper an optimal choice of the auxiliary discretized model and a new test based on asymptotically equivalent M-estimators of the robust indirect estimators. We apply the robust indirect saddlepoint tests using an optimal choice of discretization to various contaminated diffusion models and we illustrate the gain in finite sample accuracy when using the new technique.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève in its series Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva with number 2008.01.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 40 Boulevard du Pont-d'Arve, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland
Phone: +41 22 379 8263
Fax: +41 22 379 82 93
Web page: http://www.unige.ch/gsem/dsec/index.html
indirect inference; M-estimators; influence function; robust statistics; saddlepoint approximations;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Czellar, Veronika & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Ronchetti, Elvezio, 2007.
"Indirect robust estimation of the short-term interest rate process,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 546-563, September.
- Czellar, Veronika & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Ronchetti, Elvezio, 2005. "Indirect Robust Estimation of the Short-term Interest Rate Process," Working Paper Series 2005-4, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Veronika Czellar & G. Andrew Karolyi & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2005. "Indirect Robust Estimation of the Short-term interest Rate Process," FAME Research Paper Series rp135, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Veronika Czellar & G. Andrew Karolyi & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2005. "Indirect Robust Estimation of the Short-term Interest Rate Process;," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 2005.02, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
- Chan, K C, et al, 1992.
" An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate CKLS(1992) estimation of interest rate models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00035, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996.
"Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992.
92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
- Robert C. Merton, 1980.
"On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation,"
NBER Working Papers
0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
- Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996.
"Which Moments to Match?,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October.
- Ortelli, Claudio & Trojani, Fabio, 2005. "Robust efficient method of moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 69-97, September.
- Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De.
- Broze, Laurence & Scaillet, Olivier & Zako an, Jean-Michel, 1998.
"Quasi-Indirect Inference For Diffusion Processes,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 161-186, April.
- BROZE, Laurence & SCAILLET, Olivier & ZAKOIAN, Jean-Michel, 1995. "Quasi Indirect Inference for Diffusion Processes," CORE Discussion Papers 1995005, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- BROZE, Laurence & SCAILLET, Olivier & ZAKOIAN, Jean-Michel, . "Quasi-indirect inference for diffusion processes," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1327, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Knut Heggland & Arnoldo Frigessi, 2004. "Estimating functions in indirect inference," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(2), pages 447-462.
- Genton, Marc G. & de Luna, Xavier, 2000. "Robust simulation-based estimation," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 253-259, July.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 1999. "Transition Densities for Interest Rate and Other Nonlinear Diffusions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1361-1395, 08.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.