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Indirect Robust Estimation of the Short-term Interest Rate Process;

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Author Info
Veronika Czellar
G. Andrew Karolyi
Elvezio Ronchetti

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Abstract

We introduce Indirect Robust Generalized Method of Moments (IRGMM), a new simulation-based estimation methodology, to model short-term interest rate processes. The primary advantage of IRGMM relative to classical estimators of the continuous-time short-rate diffusion processes is that it corrects both the errors due to discretization and the errors due to model misspecification. We apply this new approach to various monthly and weekly Eurocurrency interest rate series.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Département d'Econométrie, Université de Genève in its series Cahiers du Département d'Econométrie with number 2005.02.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:gen:geneem:2005.02

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Keywords: GMM and RGMM estimators; CKLS one factor model; indirect inference;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 297-316, July.
  2. Yongmiao Hong, 2005. "Nonparametric Specification Testing for Continuous-Time Models with Applications to Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 37-84. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kalimipalli, Madhu & Susmel, Raul, 2004. "Regime-switching stochastic volatility and short-term interest rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 309-329, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Genton M.G. & Ronchetti E., 2003. "Robust Indirect Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 67-76, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 1999. "Transition Densities for Interest Rate and Other Nonlinear Diffusions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1361-1395, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Andersen, Torben G. & Lund, Jesper, 1997. "Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 343-377, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March. [Downloadable!]
  10. Dell'Aquila, Rosario & Ronchetti, Elvezio & Trojani, Fabio, 2003. "Robust GMM analysis of models for the short rate process," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 373-397, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1977. "Savings bonds, retractable bonds and callable bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 67-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Broze, Laurence & Scaillet, Olivier & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1995. "Testing for continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 199-223, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Pritsker, Matt, 1998. "Nonparametric Density Estimation and Tests of Continuous Time Interest Rate Models," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 449-87.
  14. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October. [Downloadable!]
  15. David A. Chapman & John B. Long Jr. & Neil D. Pearson, 1998. "Using Proxies for the Short Rate: When are Three Months Like an Instant?," Finance 9808004, EconWPA, revised 07 Oct 1998. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S85-118, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 2000. "Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 355-388, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Ronchetti, Elvezio & Trojani, Fabio, 2001. "Robust inference with GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 37-69, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-99, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Dothan, L. Uri, 1978. "On the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 59-69, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Ahn, Dong-Hyun & Gao, Bin, 1999. "A Parametric Nonlinear Model of Term Structure Dynamics," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 721-62.
  24. David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 1998. "Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?," Finance 9808005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  25. Durham, Garland B., 2003. "Likelihood-based specification analysis of continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 463-487, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "Which Moments to Match," Working Papers 95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  27. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-form Approximation Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 223-262, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Conley, Timothy G, et al, 1997. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Subordinated Diffusions," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 525-77.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Veronika Czellar & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2008. "Accurate and robust indirect inference for diffusion models," Cahiers du Département d'Econométrie 2008.01, Département d'Econométrie, Université de Genève. [Downloadable!]
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