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The Causes and Consequences of the Demographic Transition

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  • David Canning

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

Abstract

The causes and consequences of the demographic transition are considered in light of the recent book by Dyson (2010) on demography and development. In the last 50 years the world has seen an exogenous decline in mortality that generated a decline in fertility and an increase in urbanization that has had profound economic, social and political consequences. However, historically, declines in mortality and fertility, and escape from the Malthusian trap, have required countries to have already undergone considerable economic and political development. We therefore argue for two way causality between the demographic transition and economic and political outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • David Canning, 2011. "The Causes and Consequences of the Demographic Transition," PGDA Working Papers 7911, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    • Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:7911
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    File URL: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2011/PGDA_WP_79.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Prettner & Timo Trimborn, 2012. "Demographic Change and R&D-based Economic Growth: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_006, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    2. C. Hinrichs, 2014. "Transitions to sustainability: a change in thinking about food systems change?," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 31(1), pages 143-155, March.
    3. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2015. "The effect of life expectancy on education and population dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1445-1478, June.
    4. Hualiang Wei & Grant R. Bigg, 2017. "The Dominance of Food Supply in Changing Demographic Factors across Africa: A Model Using a Systems Identification Approach," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, October.
    5. Cummins, Matthew, 2019. "Population Dynamics and the Demographic Dividend Potential of Eastern and Southern Africa: A Primer," MPRA Paper 97735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hirazawa, Makoto & Yakita, Akira, 2017. "Labor supply of elderly people, fertility, and economic development," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 75-96.
    7. Karel Brůna & Jiří Pour, 2023. "Population aging and structural over/underinvestment," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2339-2383, August.
    8. Dănuț-Vasile JEMNA & Mihaela DAVID, 2021. "Determinants of ageing in Romania. Evidence from regional-level panel analysis," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 13(1), pages 17-32, May.
    9. Sánchez-Romero, Miguel & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2017. "Redistributive effects of the US pension system among individuals with different life expectancy," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 51-74.
    10. Goryakin, Yevgeniy & Rocco, Lorenzo & Suhrcke, Marc, 2017. "The contribution of urbanization to non-communicable diseases: Evidence from 173 countries from 1980 to 2008," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 151-163.

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    Keywords

    demographic transition; fertility; mortality;
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