The Graying of Global Population and Its Macroeconomic Consequences
AbstractPopulation aging is emerging as a major demographic trend in many countries, with potentially important implications for a variety of macroeconomic issues. Notwithstanding these challenges, population aging will likely have a comparatively modest effect on economic growth. Although the changed age distribution would be expected to cause the labor force participation rate to decrease, the ratio of labor force to population will actually increase in most countries. This will occur because the lower youth dependency rate and the increased rate of female labor force participation – both of which may reasonably be expected to follow from the fertility rate declines that are driving population aging – will counterbalance the shifting of adults toward older ages at which labor force participation and savings rates are lower. Behavioral and policy responses to population aging – including higher savings for retirement, a higher rate of human capital accumulation, alternate pension funding plans, and (possibly) increased migration from labor-abundant to labor-scarce countries – also suggest that population aging need not necessarily significantly impede economic growth.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Program on the Global Demography of Aging in its series PGDA Working Papers with number 4709.
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Global population; macroeconomics; aging;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2010-05-22 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-MIG-2010-05-22 (Economics of Human Migration)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
- Mariano Kulish & Kathryn Smith & Christopher Kent, 2006.
"Ageing, Retirement and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp2006-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Kulish Mariano & Kent Christopher & Smith Kathryn, 2010. "Aging, Retirement, and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, July.
- David Bloom & David Canning & Rick Mansfield & Michael Moore, 2006.
"Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings,"
PGDA Working Papers
1906, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
- Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Rick Mansfield & Michael Moore, 2006. "Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings," NBER Working Papers 12621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007.
"Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend,"
NBER Working Papers
13583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Guenther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend," PGDA Working Papers 2507, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2002.
"Longevity and Life Cycle Savings,"
NBER Working Papers
8808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2008. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 3108, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
- John Bongaarts, 2006. "How Long Will We Live?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(4), pages 605-628.
- de la Grandville,Olivier, 2009. "Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521725200, December.
- Gruber, Jonathan & Wise, David, 1998. "Social Security and Retirement: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 158-63, May.
- de la Grandville,Olivier, 2009. "Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521898010, December.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "The Health and Wealth of Africa," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 5(2), pages 57-81, April.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- The Graying of Global Population and Its Macroeconomic Consequences
by Ariel Goldring in Free Market Mojo on 2010-06-05 11:25:15
- Klaus Prettner, 2011.
"Population aging and endogenous economic growth,"
PGDA Working Papers
7211, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
- Iuliia Sonina, 2012. "Microanalysis of retirement behavior in the Russian Federation," Post-Print dumas-00817699, HAL.
- Klaus Prettner & David Canning, 2012. "Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement:does population aging necessarily undermine economic prosperity?," PGDA Working Papers 9112, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Günther Fink).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.