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The inflation Targeting effect on the inflation series: A New Analysis Approach of evolutionary spectral analysis

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  • Essahbi Essaadi

    ()
    (GATE, University of Lyon, CNRS, ENS-LSH, Centre Léon Bérard, France)

  • Zied Ftiti

    ()
    (GATE, University of Lyon, CNRS, ENS-LSH, Centre Léon Bérard, France)

Abstract

In this work, we study the inflation targeting effect on the inflation dynamics in the case of four industrial countries. Our objective is to check whether the inflation targeting policy (ITP) has a significant impact on the change of the inflation path. We use a non-parametric approach that doesn’t require any previous modelling. This is the evolutionary spectral analysis, as defined by Priestley (1965-1996). Then, we use a test that can detect many break points on the time series. This test is inspired by Subba Rao (1981). We use an extension to this test to allow the detection of multiple breaks. We base this on the extension of Ahamada and Boutahar (2002). This is the first time that this method is used in the case of inflation-targeting countries. We find that the inflation-targeting policy had a transition period for countries that had a high and volatile inflation experience before the inflation-targeting adoption. There is the case of New Zealand, Canada and Sweden. In these countries, we identify a structural change in the inflation series resulting to the inflation targeting intervention. However, In the case of other countries like United Kingdom that have a relatively lower inflation rate experience before the ITP adoption, we didn’t find a break point caused by this monetary policy intervention. In this case, the ITP had a role of ensuring this price stability. This result is explained by the fact that the inflation targeting is relevant when the initial inflation to be stabilized is near the target range (Artus, 2004). So, in this paper we justify the intuition of Artus (2004). The second result in our paper consists on the nature of inflation stabilization during the inflation-targeting period. The results proof a long-term stabilization on the inflation dynamic in the period of IT. These results traduce the success of this new framework to anchor the inflation expectation anchoring. So, we can conclude that this policy is preferment to ensure price stability in the case of industrials countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure in its series Working Papers with number 0832.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:0832

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Keywords: Inflation Targeting; Spectral Analysis and Structural Change;

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References

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  1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1998. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," CFS Working Paper Series 1998/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Artis, Michael J & Bladen-Hovell, Robin & Nachane, Dilip M, 1992. "Instability of the Velocity of Money: A New Approach Based on the Evolutionary Spectrum," CEPR Discussion Papers 735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Marc Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal Inflation-Targeting Rules," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 93-172 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Luca Benati, 2004. "Evolving post-World War II UK economic performance," Bank of England working papers 232, Bank of England.
  7. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-85, March.
  8. Bernard Hodgetts & Robin Clements, 1989. "Causes of the fall in inflation 1985-88," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 52, september.
  9. Michael D. Bordo & Angela Redish, 2005. "Seventy Years of Central Banking: The Bank of Canada in International Context, 1935-2005," NBER Working Papers 11586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "The United Kingdom's Experience with Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 98/87, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Bouchouicha, Ranoua & Ftiti, Zied, 2012. "Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: A dynamic coherence framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1820-1829.
  2. Ftiti, Zied, 2010. "The macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting policy: An approach based on the evolutionary co-spectral analysis (extension for the case of a multivariate process)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 468-476, January.
  3. Zied Ftiti & Walid Hichri, 2014. "The Price Stability Under Inflation Targeting Regime : An Analysis With a New Intermediate Approach," Working Papers 2014-099, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  4. Anna Creti & Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi, 2013. "Oil price impact on financial markets: co-spectral analysis for exporting versus importing countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-11, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  5. Sek Siok Kun, 2012. "Evaluating the performance of inflation targeting regime in three Asian economies," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 4(2), pages 82-98, September.
  6. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès, 2014. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion- Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis V.S. Wavelet Analysis," Working Papers 2014-062, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  7. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India - An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-068, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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