Jean-François Goux () (GATE, University of Lyon, CNRS, ENS-LSH, Centre Léon Bérard, France)
Abstract
The taking into account of a period of break (thick break) makes it possible to correctly analyze the time series of the euro-dollar exchange rate. By retaining the posterior period with the Louvre agreements, but by eliminating the first years from existence of the euro, and until today, one can affirm that this rate is stationary and after trend stationary and thus that there is a mechanism of return towards a level (a trend) of equilibrium. This point is shown using a new procedure of test based on the elimination of thick breaks. That makes it possible to propose a forecast based on this deterministic trend
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure in its series Working Papers with number
0826.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods F - International Economics F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: