IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gai/wpaper/0094.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Risks of Fiscal Policy in Countries Rich in Natural Resource

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Knobel

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

The article addresses the issue of fiscal policy risks in countries with an abundance of natural resources, including Russia. It is demonstrated which consequences Russia’s federal budget may be faced with as a result of declining oil prices. In the context of phenomena typical of resource-dependent economies, it is shown that they have a tendency toward a lower rate of long-term economic growth. The macroeconomic and institutional aspects of the resource curse and the role of sovereign funds in shaping up the budget policy are discussed, with a special emphasis being made on their institutional importance.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Knobel, 2014. "The Risks of Fiscal Policy in Countries Rich in Natural Resource," Working Papers 0094, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:gai:wpaper:0094
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/wpaper/0094Knobel.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2013
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cecilia Solér, 2012. "Conceptualizing Sustainably Produced Food for Promotional Purposes: A Sustainable Marketing Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-47, March.
    2. Konstantin Yanovskiy & Sergey Zhavoronkov & Ilia Zatcovetsky & Vladimir Lisin & Dmitry Cherny & Sergey Shulgin, 2015. "Institutional Constraints on Modern Economic Growth," Working Papers 0112, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.
    3. Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2006. "Institutions and the Resource Curse," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 1-20, January.
    4. Fernanda Brollo & Tommaso Nannicini & Roberto Perotti & Guido Tabellini, 2013. "The Political Resource Curse," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1759-1796, August.
    5. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 2007. "The International Economics of Natural Resources and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 1994, CESifo.
    6. Mark V. JANIKAS & Sergio J. REY, 2008. "On The Relationships Between Spatial Clustering, Inequality, And Economic Growth In The United States : 1969-2000," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 13-34.
    7. Simona E. Cociuba, 2010. "Transitional dynamics of output and factor income shares: lessons from East Germany," Globalization Institute Working Papers 43, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Tatiana Evdokimova & Pavel Trunin & Andrei Zubarev, 2013. "The Impact of the Real Ruble Exchange Rate on the Economic Activity in Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 165P, pages 164-164.
    10. Akanksha Ritesh & Shweta Mittal, 2012. "Dream College - A Case of Whistle Blowing," Working papers 2012-2-10, Voice of Research.
    11. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(5), pages 845-859.
    12. Alicia Valero & Antonio Valero, 2013. "From Grave to Cradle," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 17(1), pages 43-52, February.
    13. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001. "Natural resources, education, and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
    14. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1999. "A Mixed Blessing," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 204-225, June.
    15. Hutchison, Michael M, 1994. "Manufacturing Sector Resiliency to Energy Booms: Empirical Evidence from Norway, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 311-329, April.
    16. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    17. Arnaud Berthoud, 2007. "La notion de travail dans l'Emile de J.J. Rousseau," Post-Print halshs-00276241, HAL.
    18. Inchae Park & Yujin Jeong & Byungun Yoon, 2017. "Analyzing the value of technology based on the differences of patent citations between applicants and examiners," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(2), pages 665-691, May.
    19. Giuseppe Diana & Stefano Sturaro, 2018. "Soutenabilité de la dette publique durant une récession : faisabilité économique et volonté politique," Bulletin de l'Observatoire des politiques économiques en Europe, Observatoire des Politiques Économiques en Europe (OPEE), vol. 38(1), pages 43-48, June.
    20. Ola Olsson, 2006. "Diamonds Are a Rebel's Best Friend," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(8), pages 1133-1150, August.
    21. Aden, A. S. & Omar, M. M. & Omar, H. M. & Högberg, U. & Persson, L. Å. & Wall, S., 1997. "Excess female mortality in rural Somalia--Is inequality in the household a risk factor?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 709-715, March.
    22. Kwami Adanu, 2006. "Optimizing the Garch Model–An Application of Two Global and Two Local Search Methods," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 28(3), pages 277-290, October.
    23. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Fundamental Sources of Long-Run Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 184-188, May.
    24. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," NBER Working Papers 0852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Lundgren, Tommy & Marklund, Per-Olov & Zhang, Shanshan, 2014. "Energy Efficiency in Swedish Industry A Stochastic Frontier Approach," CERE Working Papers 2014:9, CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics.
    26. Rudiger Ahrend & Donato de Rosa & William Tompson, 2007. "Russian Manufacturing and the Threat of ‘Dutch Disease': A Comparison of Competitiveness Developments in Russian and Ukrainian Industry," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 540, OECD Publishing.
    27. Papyrakis, Elissaios & Gerlagh, Reyer, 2007. "Resource abundance and economic growth in the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1011-1039, May.
    28. V. Polterovich & V. Popov & A. Tonis., 2007. "Mechanisms of Resource Curse and Economic Policy," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 6.
    29. S. Guriev & K. Sonin., 2008. "Economics of the Resource Curse," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Georgy Idrisov & Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev, 2014. "Forming Sources for a Long-run Growth: How to Understand Them?," Working Papers 0096, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2014.
    2. Michael Evgenievich Kosov & Ravil Gabdullaevich Akhmadeev & Vladimir Mikhailovich Smirnov & Sergey Yuryevich Popkov & Inna Nikolaevna Rycova, 2017. "Hydrocarbon Market in Countries with Developing Economy: Development Scenario," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 128-135.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Idrisov, Georgy & Kazakova, Maria & Polbin, Andrey, 2015. "A theoretical interpretation of the oil prices impact on economic growth in contemporary Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 257-272.
    2. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    3. Idrisov, Georgiy (Идрисов, Георгий) & Kazakova, Maria (Казакова, Мария) & Polbin, Andrey (Полбин, Андрей), 2014. "The theoretical interpretation of the effect of oil prices on economic growth in modern Russia [Теоретическая Интерпретация Влияния Нефтяных Цен На Экономический Рост В Современной России]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 5, pages 150-171, October.
    4. Boyce, John R. & Herbert Emery, J.C., 2011. "Is a negative correlation between resource abundance and growth sufficient evidence that there is a "resource curse"?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13, March.
    5. A. Polbin., 2017. "Econometric estimation of the impact of oil prices shock on the Russian economy in VECM model," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 10.
    6. Sergei Guriev & Alexander Plekhanov & Konstantin Sonin, 2009. "Development Based on Commodity Revenues?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/106i379teb8, Sciences Po.
    7. Fidel Perez-Sebastian & Ohad Raveh, 2016. "The Natural Resource Curse and Fiscal Decentralization," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(1), pages 212-230.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/106i379teb8moplr2gknsi2nfd is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Adrian Boos & Karin Holm‐Müller, 2012. "A theoretical overview of the relationship between the resource curse and genuine savings as an indicator for “weak” sustainability," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 145-159, August.
    10. Shakti Mohan TANDI & Prajna Paramita MISHRA, 2020. "Are resources a curse or blessings? Evidence from panel ARDL model," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 191-204, Summer.
    11. Khan, Muhammad Atif & Gu, Lulu & Khan, Muhammad Asif & Oláh, Judit, 2020. "Natural resources and financial development: The role of institutional quality," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    12. Pérez, Claudia & Claveria, Oscar, 2020. "Natural resources and human development: Evidence from mineral-dependent African countries using exploratory graphical analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Waqar Wadho & Sadia Hussain, 2023. "Ethnic diversity, concentration of political power and the curse of natural resources," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(1), pages 113-137, April.
    14. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Torvik, Ragnar, 2019. "Dutch disease dynamics reconsidered," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 411-433.
    15. Hilde C. Bj�rnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy," Working Papers No 6/2013, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    16. Karlygash Kuralbayeva & David Vines, 2008. "Shocks to Terms of Trade and Risk-premium in an Intertemporal Model: The Dutch Disease and a Dutch Party," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 277-303, July.
    17. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad & Ahad, Muhammad & Tahir, Iqbal, 2018. "Is natural resource abundance a stimulus for financial development in the USA?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 223-232.
    18. Eslamloueyan, Karim & Jafari, Mahbubeh, 2021. "Do high human capital and strong institutions make oil-rich developing countries immune to the oil curse?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    19. Ruba A. Aljarallah & Andrew Angus, 2020. "Dilemma of Natural Resource Abundance: A Case Study of Kuwait," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440198, January.
    20. Papyrakis, Elissaios & Gerlagh, Reyer, 2007. "Resource abundance and economic growth in the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1011-1039, May.
    21. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Gylfi Zoega, 2017. "The Dutch Disease in Reverse: Iceland's Natural Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 6513, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    resource curse; budget policy; institutions; economic growth; sovereign funds.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gai:wpaper:0094. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aleksei Astakhov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gaidaru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.