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A Bayesian Approach to Uncertainty Aversion

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Author Info
Havely, Y.
Feltkamp, V.

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Abstract

The Ellsberg paradox demonstrates that people's belief over uncertain events might not be representable by subjective probability. We relate this paradox to other commonly observed anomalies, such as a rejection of the backward induction prediction in the one-shot Ultimatum Game. We argue that the pattern common to these observations is that the behavior is governed by "rational rules".

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Valencia - Instituto de Investigaciones Economicas in its series Papers with number 99-14.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:valinv:99-14

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Related research
Keywords: UNCERTAINTY ECONOMIC THEORY

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Aumann, Robert J., 1997. "Rationality and Bounded Rationality," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 2-14, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Machina, Mark J & Schmeidler, David, 1992. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 745-80, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Ghirardato, Paolo & Klibanoff, Peter & Marinacci, Massimo, 1998. "Additivity with multiple priors," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 405-420, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Haluk Ergin & Faruk Gul, 2003. "A Subjective Theory of Compound Lotteries," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000406, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Camerer, Colin & Weber, Martin, 1992. " Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences: Uncertainty and Ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 325-70, October.
  9. Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Binmore, K & Shaked, A & Sutton, J, 1985. "Testing Noncooperative Bargaining Theory: A Preliminary Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 1178-80, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hoffman, Elizabeth & McCabe, Kevin & Smith, Vernon L, 1996. "Social Distance and Other-Regarding Behavior in Dictator Games," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 653-60, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Epstein, Larry G & Zhang, Jiankang, 2001. "Subjective Probabilities on Subjectively Unambiguous Events," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 265-306, March.
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  13. Yaari, Menahem E, 1987. "The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 95-115, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Sarin, Rakesh & Wakker, Peter, 1997. "A Single-Stage Approach to Anscombe and Aumann's Expected Utility," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 64(3), pages 399-409, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2002. "A smooth model of decision making under ambiguity," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 11-2003, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research, revised Apr 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Rubinstein, Ariel, 1988. "Similarity and decision-making under risk (is there a utility theory resolution to the Allais paradox?)," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 145-153, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Matthew Rabin, 2002. "Inference By Believers In The Law Of Small Numbers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(3), pages 775-816, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  19. Epstein, Larry G, 1999. "A Definition of Uncertainty Aversion," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(3), pages 579-608, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Sarin, Rakesh K & Wakker, Peter, 1992. "A Simple Axiomatization of Nonadditive Expected Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1255-72, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Grether, David M, 1980. "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 537-57, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1995. "Case-Based Decision Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 605-39, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Heiner, Ronald A, 1983. "The Origin of Predictable Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 560-95, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Segal, Uzi, 1990. "Two-Stage Lotteries without the Reduction Axiom," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 349-77, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Chew, S H & Epstein, Larry G, 1988. " The Law of Large Numbers and the Attractiveness of Compound Gambles," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 125-32, March.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rick Harbaugh, 2005. "Prospect Theory or Skill Signaling?," Working Papers 2005-06, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Zvi Safra & Uzi Segal, 2005. "Are Universal Preferences Possible? Calibration Results for Non-Expected Utility Theories," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 633, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pierre Fleckinger, 2007. "On Multiagent Moral Hazard under Technological Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-00240716_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  4. Halevy, Yoram, 2005. "Ellsberg Revisited: an Experimental Study," Micro Theory Working Papers halevy-05-07-26-11-51-13, Microeconomics.ca Website, revised 07 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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