This paper studies the relationship between region-specific shocks in the European labor market and unemployment rates in Europe. The existing empirical literature in this topic employs measures hardly useful to analyze the issue at hand. We use a model for non-stationary evolving distributions to identify disaggregate and aggregate disturbances and analyze their joint dynamics. Our main findings are that unemployment is lower the more alike shocks are across regions and the lower mobility of those regional shocks is. Further, the dynamics of regional shocks have substantial predictive power for aggregate unemployment fluctuations.
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Paper provided by Valencia - Instituto de Investigaciones Economicas in its series Papers with number
98-19.