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Trade Reform, Policy Uncertainty and the Current Account : A Non-Expected Utility Approach

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  • Van Wijnbergen, S.

Abstract

Rapid trade liberalization is often followed by a decline in private savings, although permanent changes in trade policy do not affect intertemporal prices and should thus leave private savings unaffected. But a positive probability of future policy reversal lowers the consumption rate of interest and thus will increase current consumption. Furthermore, to separate the impact of shifts in intertemporal relative prices and of risk aversion, we use the Ordinal Certainty Equivalence approach. We establish that trade policy uncertainty per se will further reduce savings if: (a) there is positive risk aversion; (b) the intertemporal substitution elasticity exceeds one.
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Suggested Citation

  • Van Wijnbergen, S., 1991. "Trade Reform, Policy Uncertainty and the Current Account : A Non-Expected Utility Approach," Papers 9148, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:tilbur:9148
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muto, S., 1994. "On licensing policies in Bertrand competition," Other publications TiSEM ef5dd5db-f744-4695-b669-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Basu, Parantap & Ghosh, Satyajit & Kallianiotis, Ioannis, 2001. "Interest rate risk, labor supply and unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 223-231, April.
    3. Wilko Bolt & Kostas Mavromatis & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-015/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Basu, Parantap & Ghosh, Satyajit, 2001. "Tax rate uncertainty, labor supply and saving in a nonexpected utility maximizing model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 49-68.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1994. "Trade Reforms of Uncertain Duration and Real Uncertainty: A First Approximation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 555-586, December.
    6. Yago, Milton & Morgan, Wyn, 2008. "The impact of policy reversal on economic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 88-106, March.
    7. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Schaling, E., 1993. "Central bank independence in twelve industrial countries," Other publications TiSEM a8720614-d5b9-4252-9afe-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Wilko Bolt & Kostas Mavromatis & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-015/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Basu, Parantap, 1995. "Tax rate uncertainty and the sensitivity of consumption to income in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 421-439.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international trade ; trade barriers;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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